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Tag: Mike Singleton

Risk/Reward Still Skewed Toward Risk: Mike Singleton, Invictus Research (Szn 5, Ep 9)

Published April 11, 2023

This podcast episode was recorded on Thursday, April 6, with an actionable highlights clip previewing the following day’s non-farm payrolls released to premium subscribers that same day. The full podcast episode was then released to premium subscribers a day later. To get early access to podcast recordings and take advantage of a host of other exclusive benefits, sign up to become a premium member at our Substack or Supercast.

Mike Singleton of Invictus Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his pessimistic outlook for the economy, why he’s concerned about credit risk, and why the Federal Reserve should end up cutting rates before too long.

Content Highlights

  • The outlook for risk assets is still not constructive (2:40);
  • Fed rate hikes are very close to a peak, if not there already (4:43);
  • Economic conditions point to stubborn inflation (7:09);
  • Inflation may not need to return to the Fed’s 2% target for there to be rate cuts (11:00);
  • The outlook for commodities prices is not particularly constructive either (15:59);
  • What to make of the banks? (21:14);
  • One leading economic indicator that Invictus likes, which is overlooked (or ignored) by the market at large (22:30);
  • The backdrop is still positive for short-term bonds (24:28);
  • Leading indicators for the yield curve include bank lending standards, which right now suggest a steepening… (26:13).

More About the Guest

Not investment advice.

Quick Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

MoreRisk/Reward Still Skewed Toward Risk: Mike Singleton, Invictus Research (Szn 5, Ep 9)
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This Correction Is Not A Buy Signal: Mike Singleton, Invictus Research (Szn 4, Ep 13)

Published May 2, 2022

Mike Singleton of Invictus Research joins the podcast to discuss why the current sell-off is not a buying opportunity for stocks.

Content Highlights

  • Many contrarians currently believe sentiment is too bearish, meaning the market is due for a run for strong performance. Their conclusion is likely wrong (3:28);
  • Regardless of what investors say in surveys, the key question is whether they have money on the line — and how much (5:50);
  • Right now retail exposure to stocks is at all-time-highs, while institutional investors have cash at low levels (7:27);
  • What about the economic fundamentals, which are mostly in good shape? (10:09);
  • The Fed actually has credibility when it comes to tightening interest rates — and is not just ‘jawboning’ the market (12:58);
  • This is partly because the Fed does a lot more communicating than it has in the past (16:40);
  • Inflation has likely peaked and will start to slow, though not by enough to let the Fed ease rates (24:02);
  • Background on the guest and ‘origin story’ for Invictus Research (26:54);
  • What part of the business cycle are we in now? (33:23);
  • What does that mean for asset classes? (35:34);
  • ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) “has been a terrific place to look for shorts — quick discussion of Cathie Wood and her predicament” (38:03);
  • Bonds will become an opportunity when the Fed ‘breaks something’ and there are indications that may be happening now (40:40);

More Information on the Guest:

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