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Tag: market

Season 3, Episode 23: The Long Term Bull Case for Oil (Updated)

With Todd Sullivan, ValuePlays.com

(Updates with third video below).

Todd Sullivan of ValuePlays.com joins the podcast to discuss his long term bullish views on oil.

The guest also provides his favorite stocks — all portfolio holdings of his — for investors to take advantage of this trend.

Content Highlights

  • Big picture elements of supply, demand, and infrastructure that are driving the long term bull case for oil (2:50);

  • What about the potential for an economic slowdown in the U.S. and more importantly China? How might that impact things? (7:39);

  • Background on the guest and how he turned his passion as a blogger and investor into his current position (11:17);
  • The three energy names he really likes right now (18:51);
  • Energy has been unpopular for some time and people are under the illusion that gas and oil are going away. “Nothing could be further from the truth.” (25:28);

  • Why transport companies are more of a pure-play on energy prices than drillers (29:30);

  • $100/barrel oil is a “realistic scenario” and prices could stay high after that as the macro outlook remains constructive (37:17);

  • The bullish outlook for the cannabis industry in the U.S. — this will be the topic of a future episode (42:49).
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Season 3, Episode 21: Dangers Lurk in Market Structure’s Changing Dynamics (Updated)

With Michael Green, Portfolio Manager and Chief Strategist, Simplify Asset Management

(Updates with transcript below. To get the transcript earlier, sign up to become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this and other benefits).

Michael Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, joins the podcast to discuss the changing dynamics of market structure and how these are creating the potential for havoc.

Content Highlights:

  • Market structure: what it means and how it has changed (3:30);

  • How passive investing pools are changing the equation (6:26);

  • How Tesla (TSLA) is the perfect case study for this phenomenon (8:39);
  • The Fed’s impact when it comes to the bond market. This has ripple effect (13:02)

  • The interest rate and inflation outlook in the U.S. (15:34);
  • Background on the guest (20:55);

  • Passive investing has caused a host of confusing signals where the market cycle is concerned (24:37);
  • Business cycles are still alive and well, and this can of course impact the market. Where that stands today (30:05);

  • Market ‘skew’ is dramatically higher and chances of a collapse are increasing. “The market senses something is wrong.” (34:31).
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Season 3, Episode 19: When Investors Become Gamblers — And Why It’s Happening Now

With William L. Silber, Author of ‘The Power of Nothing to Lose: The Hail Mary Effect in Politics, War, and Business’

William L. Silber, author of the book ‘The Power of Nothing to Lose: The Hail Mary Effect in Politics, War, and Business,’ joins the podcast to discuss his thesis that individuals, including investors, can become reckless gamblers if they have nothing to lose.

Silber has a career dating back to 1966 in academia and Wall Street. His comments are pertinent in the present day of cryptocurrencies, the ‘retailization’ of options trading, NFTs, and meme stocks, among others. So is his recommendation (not investment advice) to reduce risk exposure.

Content Highlights

  • When people have downside protection and limitless losses, “they tend to become reckless and almost gamblers” (3:48)

  • Rogue traders and the skewed payoff that makes them go rogue (14:41);

  • What to make of the present day and investors’ collective risk appetite, especially regarding meme stocks? (17:32);
  • Background on the guest (24:55);

  • A valuable lesson learned at Odyssey Partners in the 1980s: what’s an exit strategy? (27:47);
  • Is this a time for investors to reduce risks and sell stocks? (30:26);

  • Precious metals and their place in a modern portfolio (36:52);
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