inflation – Page 7 – The Contrarian Investor Podcast

Trouble in the Bond Market

Published October 3, 2023

Bonds are getting beat up again. The 10-year Treasury yield today rose to its highest level since 2007. It is joined by the 30-year, which also crossed the 2007 rubicon. The short end of the curve is hardly looking any better, with the 2-year also selling off — though at the time of this writing still a couple of bps below its level from 16 years ago.

Two things appear to be driving this:

Fears of ‘higher for longer’ interest rates. Inflation remains too big of an issue for the Fed to ignore and Jay Powell & Co. are forced to continue their hawkish path when it comes to monetary policy.
Fiscal concerns, specifically that escalating US budget deficits will create more supply of bonds than can be absorbed by investors.

The first issue is not new at all. It has very much been the driving force in markets for about two years. So much for our assessment that Fed fears had peaked. Maybe it will turn out to be early. Or perhaps just dead wrong. The point is, these concerns have not gone anywhere. If anything, they’ve intensified.

The fiscal concerns are a new wrinkle, clearly not helped by the developments in Washington. There is a lot of very dramatic language over this in the financial media. On some level the question does need to be asked as to who will buy all these bonds.

The Fed

This brings us back to the Fed, as the central bank is the largest single holder of US treasuries. And therein lies the problem because the Fed is reducing its purchases of treasuries through quantitative tightening.

With the largest holder/purchaser of bonds effectively leaving the game (at least for now), it creates a big hole from the demand side of the equation. Mutual funds are the second-largest holder of treasuries. Maybe they will step in and buy, though surely many funds are already sitting on substantial losses in their bond portfolios. Can they keep buying the dip? Maybe?

Other major holders — depository institutions (ie banks), state and local governments, pensions, and sovereign nations like Japan, the UK, and China — are not exactly equipped to pick up the slack when it comes to bond buying. Banks are constrained by new restrictions brought by the bank failures this spring and don’t exactly have the balance sheet prowess to expand their treasury holdings. State and local governments can at best expected to maintain the pace of their treasury purchases. Japan and China have their own fiscal problems to deal with (and bail out, when it comes to China). The UK is facing a recession and can be counted out for its own fiscal issues.

That’s all worrisome and could indeed create more pressure on bond prices in the short term.

Fed Fears Show Signs of Peak

Published September 21, 2023

The following is an amended version of the Sept. 21 Daily Contrarian. This briefing and accompanying podcast are released to premium subscribers each market day morning by 0700.

The Federal Reserve yesterday kept its key interest rate unchanged as expected but made enough noise about “higher for longer” to scare investors. Stocks and bonds sold off.

In the case of 2-year bonds, yields spiked to a level not seen since 2006 (see chart on left).

So clearly the market was not prepared for this hawkish language from the Fed. Meanwhile, all Powell really did is just reiterate what the inflation data is telling us, which is that there is more work to do before monetary policy can be loosened. Yes, the dot-plots did move a bit, but that just tells us how FOMC members feel right now. New data can and will change their views.

The Opportunity

Whether they’re justified or not, there is a sense now that maybe Fed fears have reached a bit of a fevered pitch. Just look at the headline in today’s Wall Street Journal: “Higher Interest Rates Not Just for Longer, but Maybe Forever.”

WSJ headline: Higher Interest Rates Not Just for Longer, but Maybe Forever

Ignoring for a minute that “forever” is a pretty long time, this take conveniently forgets that we’re talking about the same Powell Fed that flooded the system with liquidity during Covid and then kept rates too low for too long. The Fed may have to keep raising rates now (thanks to its own doing), but there is no way in hell this continues “forever.”

This is the kind of language you look for to indicate a turning point. And if fears of Fed are indeed at a peak, then fear of fixed income — specifically short-term bonds — could be at a peak as well. And that could be a buying opportunity for bonds. At some point the economy will slow, inflation will ease, and the Fed will cut rates. Then investors will pour money into bonds as they abandon the riskiness of the equity market. We aren’t there yet. But we’re a day closer.

The only way the Fed doesn’t eventually pivot is if we get stagflation. And even then: That will just force the Fed to choose between protecting purchasing power (price stability) and sending the global economy flying off a cliff or flooding the market with liquidity again to spur economic growth. If you’ve been paying attention to the Fed these last 30 years it will be pretty obvious what path it chooses — especially if it’s faced with this conundrum during an election year.

Here’s short audio where the host gets into this a little bit:

Hard Landing for the US Economy, Mild Recession to Spare Emerging Markets (Szn 5, Epsd 23)

Published September 4, 2023

With Ayesha Tariq, MacroVisor

This podcast episode was recorded on Aug. 29 with a ‘highlight’ clip of the most actionable insights released to premium subscribers that same day. Premium subscribers then received the full episode — without ads or interruptions — the following day, on Aug. 30.

Ayesha Tariq, co-founder of MacroVisor, rejoins the podcast to discuss why she is expecting a hard landing for the US economy along with other contrarian views she has about the Federal Reserve and global financial markets.

Content Highlights

The ‘soft landing’ scenario has effectively become the base case. Why that’s wrong (1:32);
Unlike many (most?) recessions, this one will not be preceded by a Fed-induced credit event. For this reason, it will be milder (4:44);
The Federal Reserve is likely to hike at its next meeting on Sept. 20. That will be its last hike this cycle (8:53);
The US downturn will not necessarily lead to a global recession (12:58);
The outlook for commodities, specifically copper, is bullish despite the bearish economic outlook (18:48);
Rate hikes might be off the table, but quantitative tightening could still be incoming in 2024 (23:45);
New segment: Listener questions. Whoever’s questions are read wins a free Contrarian mug. First up: what to make of Nvidia and AI (26:36);
Next listener question: what to look for in bank earnings? (31:42);
One area of the stock market where the guest is particularly bullish (36:35).

For more about the guest, visit her website MacroVisor.com or follow her on Twitter/X.

Not investment advice.

Tag: inflation