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Tag: inflation

US Economy Too Strong for Fed, Where to Invest Now (Szn 6, Epsd 10)Podcast episode cover art feat guest Leo Schmidt, River Eddy Capital

US Economy Too Strong for Fed, Where to Invest Now (Szn 6, Epsd 10)

Published June 14, 2024

With Leo Schmidt, River Eddy Capital

Leo Schmidt, founder of family office River Eddy Capital, rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on economy, markets, and where to invest capital in what may be a ‘stagflation lite’ environment.

  • “Labor markets are way too hot.” There will be “no landing” (1:48);
  • Non-farm payrolls came out much stronger than anticipated. What this says about the labor market (4:59);
  • ‘Stagflation lite’ (8:31);
  • Our views of credit creation are outdated. The shadow banking system has replaced commercial banks as the primary source of credit. What this means (11:59);
  • The Federal Reserve probably needs to raise rates. Could they? Probably not — this year (22:21);
  • What does an investor do now? First up: Stocks that are AI/Nvidia (NVDA) plays. Celestica (CLS), Flex (FLEX), Sanmina (SANM), Jabil (JBL) (27:51);
  • Pharma spin-outs: Haleon (HLN), Kenvue (KVUE), Organon (OGN), Viatris (VTRS) (31:54);
  • Dollar stores, especially Dollar Tree (DLTR), are poised to outperform once there is an economic slowdown (39:07);
  • The bullish case for pipeline companies (46:59).

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The Specter of Stagflation Still Looms (Szn 6, Epsd 8)

Published May 13, 2024

With Ayesha Tariq, Macro Visor

Ayesha Tariq, founder of Macro Visor, rejoins the podcast to discuss her views on the economy, markets, and where investors should look for opportunities.

  • The macro set-up and why people are talking about stagflation (1:56);
  • The K-shaped economy and the damage being done (3:31);
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell claims there’s no stag and no flation. Is he wrong? (It wouldn’t be the first time) (8:50);
  • Faced with this backdrop, what does one do as an investor? (13:03);
  • China: There are still reasons to worry, even though the bleeding from the property market has abated a bit… (15:58);
  • India: long term growth story. Also copper, oil, and Japan (17:11);
  • The guest’s favorite areas for opportunity right now: UK and India (21:07);
  • A long-term concern is the fiscal situation in the US (22:00).

For more about the guest, visit her firm’s website MacroVisor.com or follow her on Twitter/X. 

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Stock Income Will Be Key for the Next Stage of Financial Market History (Szn 6, Epsd 5)Episode coverart feat Daniel Peris

Stock Income Will Be Key for the Next Stage of Financial Market History (Szn 6, Epsd 5)

Published March 27, 2024

With Daniel Peris

Financial market historian Daniel Peris joins the podcast to discuss his latest book, The Ownership Dividend, and why the next stage of the investing cycle will be marked by renewed focus on dividends and cash flows.

Note: The host’s mic was a little ‘stuffy’ for this episode but the guest comes in loud and clear!

Content Highlights

  • Cashflows have become ignored in the marketplace with investors accustomed to speculation over income. That is due to change (2:55);
  • No, this isn’t about value versus growth. Dividends and more notably buybacks are everywhere (5:22);
  • Warren Buffett has long said that companies should reinvest in the business rather than pay out dividends. But Buffett is no longer a minority shareholder… (18:30)
  • Background on the guest and unexpected detour into Russia/Ukraine (27:37);
  • Views on different sectors of the stock market from a dividend perspective (36:33);
  • What does the current era of dividend payouts say about the investing cycle? (42:40).

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