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Tag: inflation

Szn 4, Ep 6: The ‘Bad Times Are Already Here,’ With Acquirers Funds’ Tobias Carlisle

Published March 2, 2022

Tobias Carlisle of Acquirers Funds rejoins the podcast to discuss the stock market’s latest dramatic reversal, this time over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and why investors may be a bit too bullish at present…

Content Highlights

  • How to take the huge reversal last week with Russia-Ukraine? (3:11)
  • Every war starts with “the boys will be home by Christmas,” but most tend to drag on longer than anticipated. Sometimes a lot longer… (5:13);
  • Growth stocks have been in correction territory for some time. Are they in a bear market? Probably… (8:52);
  • The interest rate cycle has not started tightening but inflation has the Fed caught between a rock and a hard place (15:53);
  • Energy and energy stocks are still cheap. Then there are defense contractors. Lockheed Martin (LMT) has benefited from Russia-Ukraine and Carlisle is a holder… (21:25);
  • Facebook aka Meta (FB) is also cheap (23:20);
  • Non-fungible tokens, or NFTs: Dead as Disco (30:12);
  • The aim of investing is to survive the bad times and they are “probably here” (37:18).

More From the Guest

MoreSzn 4, Ep 6: The ‘Bad Times Are Already Here,’ With Acquirers Funds’ Tobias Carlisle
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Contrarian Calls, Revisited: Theron de Ris’ Bullish View of Energy, Precious Metals, Royalty and Streaming Stocks

Published January 31, 2022

Theron de Ris of Eschler Asset Management was bullish on energy, precious metals and royalty and streaming companies in the mining market in November 2020. 

Precious metals were in an up-trend but 2020 was the “first year we’ll be seeing some institutional interest develop,” de Ris said at the time.

Additionally, “gold is kind of a bet against bad government decisions and falling trust in the system.” Royalty and streaming companies were poised to come along for the ride as these were “basically financing companies” to “bring mines into production” with the benefit of a cut off the top line, usually into perpetuity. 

Among these, de Ris’ favorite was EMX Royalties (EMX).

MoreContrarian Calls, Revisited: Theron de Ris’ Bullish View of Energy, Precious Metals, Royalty and Streaming Stocks
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Szn 4, Ep. 1: Barry Knapp on Uncertainty Shocks, Inflation, Economic Growth, and What Else to Expect in 2022

Published January 7, 2022

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his 2022 outlook for the economy and markets. He is broadly optimistic on the former, but less enthusiastic about the latter — at least in the first half of the year — with strong possibility of ‘uncertainty shocks,’ especially around Fed events (sound familiar?) There is also some interesting discussion around interest rates, inflation, and China, among others.

Content Highlights

(Spotify users can link to the start of the section by clicking on the timestamp)

  • A lot has changed in a year, though probably nothing quite as much as the inflation outlook (3:04);
  • Markets and economics should diverge significantly in the first half of the year (4:51);
  • The Federal Reserve is due to embark on a rate-tightening cycle, which should be negative for markets but will be net-neutral, or perhaps even positive for the economy (8:00);
  • Inflation is running hot, but the guest has done some deep research on similar historical epochs and finds the concern less pressing than most (17:20);
  • The key level for inflation is 4% — if the CPI exceeds it consistently there could be trouble. Link to the Fed paper referenced here (21:33);
  • Still, there is a strong possibility for ‘uncertainty shocks’ in the first half of the year (29:52);
  • Finally, China: Reasons to be bearish. Very bearish (34:58).

More Information on the Guest

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MoreSzn 4, Ep. 1: Barry Knapp on Uncertainty Shocks, Inflation, Economic Growth, and What Else to Expect in 2022
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