Press "Enter" to skip to content

Tag: inflation

The Coming Credit Crunch and Death of Unicorns: Leo Schmidt (Szn 4, Ep 11)

Published April 18, 2022

Leo Schmidt of River Eddy Capital Management rejoins the podcast to discuss the coming credit crunch, its impact on stock market sectors, and where to invest to protect one’s portfolio.

Content Highlights

  • So-called “unicorn” companies, or the darlings of the VC crowd, and others that cannot generate cashflow, will face a tough reckoning (3:17);
  • Undermining this is “a complete change of psychology” in terms of velocity of money (6:27);
  • What if the Fed reverses course? It’s not so simple (8:52);
  • Oil is a short: “Oil is the ultimate liquid commodity” but there is a place for pipeline stocks… (11:38);
  • What stocks can thrive in this type of environment? Look first to medical company spin-offs (19:13);
  • Another area to look: Business development companies, or BDCs. This is a risky part of the market but there is at least one BDC making first-lien loans, which are the safest part of the capital structure… (26:23);
  • Quick epilogue on China’s latest Covid lockdown. There are ways to play the move away from supply chain issues that result (35:58);

Quick Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

MoreThe Coming Credit Crunch and Death of Unicorns: Leo Schmidt (Szn 4, Ep 11)
Comments closed

The Fallacy of Renewable Energy: Leigh Goehring, Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates (Szn 4, Ep 10)

Published April 6, 2022

Leigh Goehring, managing partner of Goehring & Rozencwajg, joins the podcast to discuss his view that most renewable energies are ineffective at reducing carbon output and pointless as investments.

Content Highlights

  • The consensus opinion is that renewable energy will solve many of the problems of CO2 production and energy needs. This is false (3:12);
  • The “terrible energy efficiency” associated with renewables will make the world poorer (5:00);
  • What is the problem with solar and wind and why are they so inefficient? (7:20);
  • It’s no coincidence that the energy crisis started in Germany, which is now forced to import coal (12:20);
  • Vaclav Smil and the premise that there has never been a new technology with inferior energy efficiency that displaced the old technology (13:59);
  • The ulterior motives behind China’s green energy push (18:33);
  • The “great hope” for a Moore’s Law of wind mills and solar panels is a fallacy. Input prices have declined because energy prices have (21:05);
  • Where does that leave electric cars? (25:00);
  • Background on the guest (33:42);
  • What parts of the energy industry are better targets for investment right now? Look to uranium for starters, “the perfect solution to our problems” (37:17);
  • Copper is “the quintessential green metal” also facing a supply/demand imbalance. Also agricultural commodities, grains, fertilizers, nitrogen, and potash (41:26);
  • Mosaic (MOS) is one of the world’s largest phosphate and potash producers, and a stock the guest is particularly bullish on — it trades at just 5x earnings versus 25x at the peak (47:07);
  • An agricultural crisis could soon be upon us, leading to hoarding of supplies (49:58).

More Information About the Guest

Quick Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

MoreThe Fallacy of Renewable Energy: Leigh Goehring, Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates (Szn 4, Ep 10)
Leave a Comment

Stock Picks to Play the Coming Inflation Slowdown (Szn 4, Ep 9)

Published March 24, 2022

With Lukasz Tomicki, LRT Capital Management

Lukasz Tomicki of LRT Capital rejoins the podcast to argue his (highly contrarian) case that inflation is due to slow and to provide stock picks that allow investors to take advantage of current dislocations in markets.

Content Highlights

  • Inflation will peak around mid-year and return to historic norms shortly thereafter (2:43);
  • Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its impact on supply chains have certainly contributed to higher prices for commodities, but markets will adapt (7:01);
  • Another contrarian take: The Fed will successfully manage a soft landing (8:55);
  • “Russia is basically a gas station with nuclear weapons.” The U.S. and Europe can deal without Russian imports so this shouldn’t be a point of concern (14:20);
  • Stocks of two Brazilian companies that have been beaten down but have started to rebound… (20:05);
  • A company that has been directly impacted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is an IT consulting firm with a large presence in Ukraine whose stock has predictably been beaten up but could offer huge returns (31:38);
  • The most likely outcome in Ukraine is for the military situation to grind to a stalemate (35:55);
  • A final idea: Buy the Polish stock market through the iShares MSCI Poland Capped ETF (EPOL) (39:50).

More Information on the Guest

Not intended as investment advice.

Video Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

MoreStock Picks to Play the Coming Inflation Slowdown (Szn 4, Ep 9)
Comments closed