hedge funds – Page 2 – The Contrarian Investor Podcast

Regional Bank Credit Risk, AI Hype, Trouble in Commercial Real Estate (Szn 5, Ep. 16)

Published June 20, 2023

With Chris Bemis, X-Cubed Capital

Chris Bemis, co-founder of X-Cubed Capital, joins the podcast to discuss his views on regional bank credit risk, the nascent bubble in AI tech stocks (and AI more generally), problems in commercial real estate, and how he applies his mathematics background to investing.

Content Highlights

Last September, X-Cubed’s credit risk signals flashed red over regional banks, causing the firm to put on some trades to profit. That opportunity has now run its course and the other side may hold more interest… (1:21);
AI tech stocks: It’s not 1999 but more like 1995 with the beginning of the seeds of a bubble. The firm is more bullish on mid-cap stocks in general (12:11);
Background on the guest (15:40);
The differences between a multi-manager approach to investing and multi-strategy and why the latter has advantages right now (19:46);
The bearish argument on office space and why he’s bullish homeowners (26:20);
Making use of mobile phone data and other ‘alternative’ data sources (30:00);
AI, artificial intelligence, and why it falls short in many investment approaches (33:18);
Some advice for math students from a mathematics academic (38:37).

More Information on the Guest

Website: x3cmllc.com

Quick Highlights From our YouTube Channel

Hard Assets the Place to Be in ’23: Kyrill Asatur, Centerfin (Szn 4, Ep. 34)

Published December 8, 2022

This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win.

Kyrill Asatur, co-founder and CEO of Centerfin, joins the podcast to discuss his view on asset allocation going into 2023: why he is bullish on hard assets like energy and bearish on fixed income — and why the inflationary environment is likely going to stick around.

Content Highlights

How Centerfin was set up coming into this year and what went into its contrarian decision to avoid fixed income (4:06);
Current views on the market after a tough year (5:25);
Centerfin’s take is to be long hard assets, including commodities and commodity-linked equities while continuing to avoid fixed income like bonds (7:44);
The environment is different now. There has been a regime change since 2017. Inflation can’t just be exported anymore (9:48);
There will likely be a recession. Once we emerge from it, leading industries will probably be different than they were in past recoveries (11:18);
Why Centerfin is bullish energy and how they are playing it (12:55);
Their chosen ETF to get exposure to clean energy (14:48);
There is no need to buy international (ex-US) energy stocks (16:36);
Short discussion on the concept of introducing different prices for different uses of energy (18:48);
Re-shoring from China with Apple (AAPL) moving all its production out of the country and how to potentially play that trend (20:46);
Background on the guest and what got him to start Centerfin (25:53);
Distressed investing remains out of reach for most investors but Centerfin is considering ways to change that… (30:52);
The bullish case for copper (39:13);
How best to gain exposure to uranium (40:00).

Quick Video Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

Prepare for a ‘Long Slog’ in Stock Markets as Fed Hikes Continue: Bob Elliott (Szn 4, Ep. 31)

Published November 9, 2022

Bob Elliott, chief investment officer of Unlimited Funds, joins the podcast to discuss his views on the Federal Reserve, inflation, the midterm elections, and why stocks have entered a long ‘slog’ for the foreseeable future.

Content Highlights

Investors have been conditioned for recessions to feature a fast decline in equity markets followed by a rapid recovery. This time around those dynamics are different (3:44);
There is no chance of a ‘Fed pivot’ coming anytime soon (7:58);
What about infighting at the Fed and within the FOMC? (11:03);
Yes, you need unemployment to increase for there to be any progress with inflation. Higher prices are no longer due to supply chain issues (13:57);
The Fed will raise either 50bps or 75bps at its next meeting and rates could easily go up to 6% (21:22);
Background on the guest and his ETF, the Unlimited HFND Multi Strategy Return Tracker ETF. Stock ticker: HFND (26:19);
The growing disconnect between hedge fund positioning and retail investors: Hedge funds are short bonds, long commodities, bullish gold, and are sitting on a bunch of cash… (36:21);
The Fed’s target rate for inflation is 2%, but that could change. That would bring a myriad of issues… (38:24);
It’s hard to get bullish about longterm bonds: right now and for the foreseeable future (40:54);
Investors continue to look for reasons that the economy is slowing and the Fed needs to reverse course. There is virtually no evidence of this happening (42:44);
The midterm elections are likely to lead to a split government. This brings tail risks that few people are talking about (44:50).