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Trump Victory a Big Win for Cryptos, Small Cap Stocks — USD?AI-generated image of Donald Trump as 'roaring bull' with US dollar backdrop

Trump Victory a Big Win for Cryptos, Small Cap Stocks — USD?

Published November 7, 2024

Losers include all things renewable energy, bonds, China, and (for now) gold…

This post was originally published the morning of Nov. 6, 2024 in the Daily Contrarian.

The election is over. Trump won. That is going to have broad impacts, not all of which are apparent yet.

AI image of Donald Trump as raging bull against US dollar backdrop

The immediate impact of Trump’s victory appears to be a broad move to the riskiest of risk assets. Cryptos being Exhibit A. Small caps are forging ahead. You also have Tesla (TSLA) soaring overnight. Meme stocks are up too, but less.

The losers include all things renewable energy, with solar stocks taking it on the chin overnight. The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) is down 9% at the time of this writing. Big oil, on the other hand, is gaining ground with Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) up 3% each at the time of this writing.

Financials are winners as well. Not just big names like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) but regional banks. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) is up 8% overnight.

Another loser: China. The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) is down 2%+. Names like Alibaba (BABA), JD.com (JD) and PDD (PDD) are moving lower.

All That Glitters…

Just keep in mind that the immediate reaction to political events is not always the right one. In 2016 at this time there was a broad sell-off. One can expect things to be volatile, especially as retail investors take short-term gains…

That brings us to a first possible opportunity. There has been a pullback in gold overnight, a likely result of the ‘strong dollar’ trade ushered in by this Trump victory. There are three problems with this trade, however:

  1. Trump has railed against USD strength;
  2. Trump’s policies are widely expected to be inflationary. You’ve seen the resulting sell-off in bonds. That means a weaker USD;
  3. The Federal Reserve is cutting rates, which is also bad for the USD.

One would expect all of this to, in time, be good for gold. During Trump’s first term the precious metal rallied by 55%. Past performance is not always a guide to future results, but gold tends to do well under Republican administrations (+215% in eight years of George W. Bush).

Make no mistake, though: gold has been on a massive tear all year and only recently pulled back from all-time highs:

Still, if gold keeps dropping it may present a buying opportunity keeping items 1-3 above in mind.

Full disclosure: The Contrarian owns some physical gold as well as SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) in a retirement account.

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The Bull Case for Industrial Commodities, AI, and More (Szn 6, Epsd 17)Podcast episode cover art feat Tony Greer

The Bull Case for Industrial Commodities, AI, and More (Szn 6, Epsd 17)

Published October 1, 2024

Tony Greer of TG Macro joins the podcast to discuss his bullish view on industrial commodities, especially oil, AI, the upcoming presidential election, and more.

Content Highlights

  • Why energy commodities, precious and base metals are all set up to rally (1:31);
  • China’s stimulus package boosted industrial metals. The bounce should not be limited to the short term… (4:57);
  • There are a number of ways to express the ‘long commodities’ trade. ETFs may be the simplest… (8:59)
  • The bullish case for uranium (10:37);
  • Don’t fade the AI story (14:20);
  • The inevitable cryptocurrency discussion (17:04);
  • Background on the guest (22:30);
  • Listener question: What’s the inflection point for a move higher in industrial commodities? (26:10);
  • Election discussion (28:17).

More From the Guest

Not investment advice.

Quick Video Highlight From Our YouTube Channel

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Gold Prices Set to Move (Even) Higher: Dana SamuelsonCover image, Season 6, Episode 12 Podcast

Gold Prices Set to Move (Even) Higher: Dana Samuelson

Published July 25, 2024

Dana Samuelson, president of the American Gold Exchange, joins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss why gold prices are set up to rally further — even after a 20% rise so far this year.

Content Highlights

  • Gold is trading right near all-time highs. Can there really be more room for upside? (1:48);
  • One thing missing from the equation for still higher gold prices is interest rate cuts… (3:36);
  • Another thing missing is fear in the market (5:07);
  • Gold has rallied 20% so far this year. A Fed rate cut will supply another 10%. $3000/oz. gold is in sight… (8:36);
  • What of the argument that there’s no tangible use for gold? (11:20);
  • Why gold coins are preferable to bars (14:30);
  • Background on the guest (19:39);
  • Quarters and dimes vintage 1964 are 90% silver (26:40);
  • View on digital currencies and Bitcoin. There is a place for it… (33:20);
  • How much of one’s portfolio should be earmarked for gold and precious metals? (37:15)

More Information on the Guest

Quick Highlights From our YouTube Channel

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