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Tag: geopolitics

Stock Picks to Play the Coming Inflation Slowdown (Szn 4, Ep 9)

Published March 24, 2022

With Lukasz Tomicki, LRT Capital Management

Lukasz Tomicki of LRT Capital rejoins the podcast to argue his (highly contrarian) case that inflation is due to slow and to provide stock picks that allow investors to take advantage of current dislocations in markets.

Content Highlights

  • Inflation will peak around mid-year and return to historic norms shortly thereafter (2:43);
  • Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its impact on supply chains have certainly contributed to higher prices for commodities, but markets will adapt (7:01);
  • Another contrarian take: The Fed will successfully manage a soft landing (8:55);
  • “Russia is basically a gas station with nuclear weapons.” The U.S. and Europe can deal without Russian imports so this shouldn’t be a point of concern (14:20);
  • Stocks of two Brazilian companies that have been beaten down but have started to rebound… (20:05);
  • A company that has been directly impacted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is an IT consulting firm with a large presence in Ukraine whose stock has predictably been beaten up but could offer huge returns (31:38);
  • The most likely outcome in Ukraine is for the military situation to grind to a stalemate (35:55);
  • A final idea: Buy the Polish stock market through the iShares MSCI Poland Capped ETF (EPOL) (39:50).

More Information on the Guest

Not intended as investment advice.

Video Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

MoreStock Picks to Play the Coming Inflation Slowdown (Szn 4, Ep 9)
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Watch for the Bounce in Equities: Brent Kochuba, Spot Gamma (Szn 4, Ep 7)

Published March 10, 2022

Brent Kochuba of Spot Gamma joins the podcast to discuss his view that there will likely be an equities rally into the March 18 options expiration.

This podcast was recorded Wednesday afternoon, March 9, 2022, and made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber today by visiting Contrarian.Supercast.com or our Substack. There are many benefits beyond getting podcasts a few days (or more) early and not having to deal with annoying ads or announcements.

Content Highlights

  • Stocks have been selling off with the Nasdaq now officially in a bear market. But the guest is short-term bullish for reasons that can be traced to market makers hedging counterparty risk (2:39);
  • What about all the uncertainty with Russia-Ukraine? (5:57);
  • Stocks are up since the start of the Russian invasion on Feb. 24, likely because markets were hedged going in due to Fed tightening concerns (9:28);
  • What to make of the March 9 rally? A brief primer on gamma, vanna, and charm aka delta decay (11:02);
  • Similar gamma squeezes caused rallies in the past around options expiry (15:20);
  • Background on the guest (21:31);
  • The hedges investors have put on ahead of the FOMC meeting next week should lead to more risk-off. The lower bound for the S&P 500 is 4,100 (24:36);
  • Recent days have seen a change in options flow: Nvidia (NVDA) and crypto names such as Coinbase (COIN) have benefited along with Amazon (AMZN) and the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) (26:50);
  • Liquidity is important and recent months have seen some of it leave the system (30:06).

More Information on the Guest

Video Highlights

MoreWatch for the Bounce in Equities: Brent Kochuba, Spot Gamma (Szn 4, Ep 7)
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Szn 4, Ep 6: The ‘Bad Times Are Already Here,’ With Acquirers Funds’ Tobias Carlisle

Published March 2, 2022

Tobias Carlisle of Acquirers Funds rejoins the podcast to discuss the stock market’s latest dramatic reversal, this time over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and why investors may be a bit too bullish at present…

Content Highlights

  • How to take the huge reversal last week with Russia-Ukraine? (3:11)
  • Every war starts with “the boys will be home by Christmas,” but most tend to drag on longer than anticipated. Sometimes a lot longer… (5:13);
  • Growth stocks have been in correction territory for some time. Are they in a bear market? Probably… (8:52);
  • The interest rate cycle has not started tightening but inflation has the Fed caught between a rock and a hard place (15:53);
  • Energy and energy stocks are still cheap. Then there are defense contractors. Lockheed Martin (LMT) has benefited from Russia-Ukraine and Carlisle is a holder… (21:25);
  • Facebook aka Meta (FB) is also cheap (23:20);
  • Non-fungible tokens, or NFTs: Dead as Disco (30:12);
  • The aim of investing is to survive the bad times and they are “probably here” (37:18).

More From the Guest

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