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Tag: geopolitics

Tech Is Not Dead, Though It Is Certainly Changing: Kevin Philip (Szn 5, Ep 8)

Published March 28, 2023

Kevin Philip of Bel Air Investment Advisors joins the podcast to discuss why he’s still bullish about technology despite seismic changes in that industry, his less enthusiastic take on cryptocurrencies, and other issues he’s watching — be they in the banking sector or geopolitically.

Content Highlights

  • Tech is not dreck, nor is it dead. Technological advances are at the heart of US economic growth. Demand for digital goods may have gotten ahead of its skis during Covid. It will return (1:40);
  • Chances for an interest cut by year-end have increased with the bank failures (4:30);
  • The employment situation is changing in the technology industry as it comes to terms with delicate circumstances around business models and the concept of value in general (6:01);
  • The bank failures may create opportunities for venture capital in two areas: secondary funds and a new vintage of funds that should generate outsize returns in the future (9:20);
  • Tech stocks have been beaten down, but lower interest rates can sustain earnings multiples. There are risks, however… (11:23);
  • Some of the threats and opportunities wrought by Chat GPT and AI (14:11);
  • When it comes to cryptocurrencies, the guest is not a major fan — and this was recorded before Binance (18:52);
  • Silicon Valley Bank was poorly managed and had a bad business model. It deserved to fail (21:52);
  • As for Credit Suisse, the Swiss bank appears to have been undone by a crisis of confidence (23:44);
  • Background on the guest (27:50);
  • Bel Air’s clientele is mostly about wealth protection rather than growth. What are some tried and true methods for accomplishing this? (32:25);
  • China discussion and why there’s no need to invest internationally (34:48);
  • Through it all, there are reasons for optimism (43:31).

Not investment advice.

For more information on the guest, visit the Bel Air Investment Advisors website.

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China Reopening: Underestimating the Impact on Global Economy, Markets (Szn 5, Ep. 2)

Published January 24, 2023

With Mike Edwards, Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers

Mike Edwards, deputy chief investment officer at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, joins the podcast to discuss China’s post-Covid reopening and why its impact on global markets is not being fully priced in by investors.

Content Highlights

  • China’s abrupt U-turn over ‘Zero Covid’ is unquestionably one of the biggest changes to take effect in the global economy over the last few months (2:23);
  • There have been reservations about this reopening, but it is happening with authoritative force and will have a major positive impact (5:08);
  • What about the US de-coupling from China and the embattled real estate sector? (11:00)
  • Where this will be felt most is in markets that have exposure to the Chinese consumer. It also points to Europe and emerging markets outperforming the US (17:54);
  • Chinese consumers were far more restrained than their US counterparts during Covid and have been slower to return — especially tourists. This is not just a one-off in terms of the resurgence of Chinese travel and services (24:20);
  • What to make of the latest economic developments in the US, especially with the consumer? (27:31);
  • Weiss’s house view is that the US will avoid recession this year (34:02);
  • Background on the guest (37:49);
  • China can re-emerge without the US as a major partner (51:36);
  • After some consolidation, the US economic and market cycle is marked by investors seeking to put money to work — slowly (57:18).

More on Mike Edwards

Not investment advice!

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Recession in 2023 Should Be Benign With Ample Job Growth: Alex Chausovsky (Szn 4, Ep. 35)

Published December 22, 2022

Alex Chausovsky, vice president of analytics and consulting at Miller Resource Group, rejoins the podcast to discuss his surprisingly upbeat economic outlook for 2023, driven by a healthy labor market in the US.

Content Highlights

  • There may be a recession in 2023 but the US labor market should hold up just fine (3:03);
  • The guest’s assessment is due to first-hand knowledge as his employer is a recruiting firm. None of their clients are slowing hiring (5:37);
  • The trend is due in part to re-shoring of high-end manufacturing to the US, but also to non-US companies seeking to establish manufacturing centers stateside (7:46);
  • The Federal Reserve has been hiking rates aggressively and plans to continue this policy (albeit less aggressively) in 2023, but most of the damage may be done already (9:12)
  • With inflation abating there will be less impetus for the Fed to “truly break things” in 2023 (13:05);
  • Supply chain issues have mostly been resolved, with auto production and semiconductors especially benefiting. Further easing can be expected on the labor side (14:44);
  • One sector of the economy that is clearly poised to benefit: automation (16:56);
  • Background on the guest (22:56);
  • Housing has already contracted but this should turn around by the end of 2023 or early 2024 (31:32);
  • The outcome he’s expecting in his native Ukraine (37:35).

More Information on the Guest

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