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Tag: geopolitics

Tariffs, Strong US Dollar, Stocks Rally, M&A: What to Expect From Trump-onomics 2.0 — Should It Happen (Szn 6, Epsd 19)

Published October 30, 2024

With Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex

Marc Chapman of Bannockburn Global Forex rejoins the podcast to discuss all things US election and the impact a Trump victory would have on economics and financial markets.

This podcast episode was recorded Monday, Oct. 28, 2024 and was made available for premium subscribers that same day. More information about premium subscriptions is available on our Substack.

Content Highlights

  • The impact of a Trump victory next Tuesday is seen as greater as the impact of a Harris victory. What this means for markets and the economy (2:11);
  • What if Trump doesn’t win? That has become the contrarian take (3:45);
  • How it all might affect Mexico, the US’ largest trading partner (5:40);
  • The US-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement is up for review next year. Expect more concessions from Mexico regardless of who’s in the White House (and Congress) (12:22);
  • However the outlook is not all bad for all Mexican securities… (15:40);
  • Concerns Trump will try to limit the Federal Reserve’s independence (19:38);
  • Don’t overlook the possibility of a recession early in the next president’s term (25:44);
  • Trump victory may lead to more mergers and acquisitions (26:50).

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MoreTariffs, Strong US Dollar, Stocks Rally, M&A: What to Expect From Trump-onomics 2.0 — Should It Happen (Szn 6, Epsd 19)
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The Specter of Stagflation Still Looms (Szn 6, Epsd 8)

Published May 13, 2024

With Ayesha Tariq, Macro Visor

Ayesha Tariq, founder of Macro Visor, rejoins the podcast to discuss her views on the economy, markets, and where investors should look for opportunities.

  • The macro set-up and why people are talking about stagflation (1:56);
  • The K-shaped economy and the damage being done (3:31);
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell claims there’s no stag and no flation. Is he wrong? (It wouldn’t be the first time) (8:50);
  • Faced with this backdrop, what does one do as an investor? (13:03);
  • China: There are still reasons to worry, even though the bleeding from the property market has abated a bit… (15:58);
  • India: long term growth story. Also copper, oil, and Japan (17:11);
  • The guest’s favorite areas for opportunity right now: UK and India (21:07);
  • A long-term concern is the fiscal situation in the US (22:00).

For more about the guest, visit her firm’s website MacroVisor.com or follow her on Twitter/X. 

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Trend-Following Strategies for the New World Order (Szn 6, Epsd 7)Podcast episode cover art

Trend-Following Strategies for the New World Order (Szn 6, Epsd 7)

Published April 24, 2024

With Dr. Doug Greenig, Florin Court Capital

Dr. Doug Greenig of Florin Court Capital joins the podcast to discuss his worldview — one where the US is no longer the sole superpower — the situation in the Middle East, US fiscal concerns, artificial intelligence, and trends in commodities.

And of course how this all impacts his trading strategy.

Content Highlights

  • The world has undergone many changes with the US emerging as its lone superpower. That era is over (2:09);
  • China is a legitimate competitor to the US. It’s just having a bad moment due to the property market. But China is not going anywhere as an economic or military power (6:07);
  • The guest’s trend-following model trades 500 assets and seeks to capture medium-term changes. What he looks for to enter and exit trades (16:52);
  • One trend is lower electricity prices in Europe (19:19);
  • Populism and the latter stage of democratic government make for a potentially bearish outlook for US stocks (27:15);
  • Background on the guest (41:04);
  • Iran is still a force in the Middle East and beyond. Discussion of the weekend drone attack on Israel, which may have been an attempt at making a point (48:40);
  • As Russia’s economy illustrates, sanctions are hard to enforce. There may be inherent bias in many pro-Western analysis… (53:03);
  • US fiscal problems are real. The guest says it has “something like five years” before this takes a serious toll. Artificial intelligence may postpone this however (55:45);
  • Hypersonic missiles: One area where Russia and China have an edge over the US (57:45).

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