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Tag: geopolitics

Season 2, Episode 10: Coronavirus Crisis Continues, Expect ‘Rolling’ Recessions

Published March 23, 2020

With Rachel Ziemba, Geo-Economic and Country Risk Expert

Rachel Ziemba joins the podcast to discuss the continuing, and intensifying economic impact from the coronavirus.

It’s become clear that the crisis has caused a demand shock that will likely bring “rolling recessions” in its wake. The most likely scenario appears to be for a “W-shaped” recovery. In the meantime, there is still a lot that go wrong.

Content Segments

  • The demand shock, shift in demand, and rolling recessions (4:27)
  • Unique characteristics of the coronavirus crisis (7:57)
  • Oil and oil-producing countries may be at most risk. Sino-U.S. relations can be expected to suffer (16:35)
  • Background on the guest (25:55)
  • Discussion of historical parallels: some similarities, but there is no precedent (30:16)
  • The unlikely prospect of a “V-shaped” recovery (36:26)
  • How deep might the trough be? (39:55)
  • Are there any safe harbors from this? (47:57)

Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

For more information on the guest:

Not intended as investment advice.

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Season 2, Episode 7: Oil Sell-Off Special Edition

Published March 10, 2020

Inside The Saudi-Russia Supply Standoff, With Kirill Zadov, Political Analyst, RUSA Radio

Kirill Zadov, political analyst at Russian-language radio station RUSA Radio, joins the podcast in this special episode to discuss the recent sell-off in oil prices.

Zadov has some unique insights into the Russian oil economy and the political economy of the Middle East. His prediction: Saudi Arabia and Russia will have to come together to agree to output cuts, and soon. How low will oil go in the interim? Here too Zadov has some views.

Segment time stamps:

  • What’s motivating Russia on their decision to not cut output? (4:02)
  • Why Russia and Saudi Arabia need to cut output, and soon (7:07)
  • What other countries in the region are affected by this? (9:19)
  • How long will it take for Russia and Saudi Arabia to agree to cuts? (10:28)
  • Background on the guest (11:35)
  • How low will oil prices go? (13:26)

For more information on the guest: 

Not intended as investment advice.

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Season 2, Episode 1: The Next Market Meltdown is Coming

Published January 16, 2020

Sunrise Capital’s Chris Stanton on the What, When, and Where

Chris Stanton, chief investment officer at Sunrise Capital, rejoins the podcast to discuss his bearish views on the market at the start of 2020.

There are reasons to believe a market correction is overdue, Stanton says. Risk is everywhere: geopolitical, volatility, repo markets. A drop of 18% to 20% can be expected before March 31.

Highlights:

  • “Rest assured, we’re heading for a correction and I would argue it’s going to be terrifying when it comes” (5:43)
  • The “Phase 1” deal with China is a temporary measure that will be revoked if Donald Trump wins reelection in November (9:55)
  • A likely catalyst for a correction is in the repo market (11:36)
  • A “volatility-led sell off” is likely before the end of the first quarter (16:12)
  • Where’s inflation? (26:34)
  • It may not take an actual headline for investors to decide equities are overbought (31:01)
  • Background on Stanton’s firm, San Diego-based Sunrise Capital (38:03)
  • The “origin story”: Background on Stanton himself (53:03)
  • What should retail investors do, right now? (1:02:49)

Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

For more information on Sunrise Capital: www.sunrisecapital.com

Not intended as investment advice.

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