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Tag: geopolitics

Season 2, Episode 16: Chinese Economic Reforms Are Already a Thing of the Past, With Dexter Roberts

The author of “The Myth of Chinese Capitalism” discusses the ramifications of his thesis

Dexter Roberts joins the podcast to discuss his book “The Myth of Chinese Capitalism.”

In Roberts’ view, economic reforms have already been curtailed under current political leadership. China’s middle class, which has grown almost exponentially in recent decades, remains limited mostly to large coastal cities. The rural countryside, which still represents half the country’s population, remains well below the middle class — and is stuck there, in part due to outdated demographic policies.

The options for Chinese policymakers are limited. They have so far not managed to spread the wealth effects of their “pivot” to a services-based economy, and may have even exacerbated the problem. This all has wide-ranging consequences: for China, for western companies, and for the world.

Content Segments:

  • The first myth: capitalism as short hand for economic reforms (5:39)
  • The second key myth: the middle class will inexorably continue to grow larger (6:35)
  • The global supply-chain diversification, started several years ago and exacerbated by COVID-19, is effectively ending China’s “factory to the world” model (9:21)
  • Authorities’ options are very limited (10:45)
  • Where does this leave Chinese consumers? The days of western companies expanding sales through the growth of China’s middle class are gone (13:10)
  • Background on the gust (20:15)
  • What might the future of China hold? (25:09) The possibility of social unrest (27:14)
  • Brief discussion of Hong Kong: “Don’t think that the protests are over.” (30:22)

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Season 2, Episode 11, Transcribed: Bargain Hunting in Frontier Markets, With Hedi Ben Mlouka of FIM Partners

Moderator 0:02
Welcome to the Contrarian Investor Podcast. We give voice to those who challenge the prevailing sentiment in global financial markets. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing on this podcast should be taken as investment advice. Guests were not compensated for the appearance, nor do they supply payment in order to appear. Individuals on this podcast may hold positions in the securities that are discussed. Listeners are urged to educate themselves and make their own decisions. Now, here’s your host, Mr. Nathaniel E. Baker.

Nathaniel E. Baker 0:36
My guest on today’s podcast is Hedi Ben Mlouka of FIM Partners. Now Hedi has been investing in frontier markets for quite a long time. And in fact, he has one of the oldest funds focused on this sector. It is of course a very interesting time in Investing. And in economics, as we all know, the Coronavirus has wreaked havoc on the economy. frontier markets, as we may know are a little bit less tied in to the major economies of the world. There are some typical emerging markets, like China and India. So, one could think that maybe this asset class is a bit better protected from events like the Coronavirus, but that is not the case according to Hedi. He tells us why this asset class is actually particularly vulnerable. And in fact, he goes into further details and tells us specifically which countries are at greater risk. But that doesn’t mean that there aren’t still compelling opportunities for investors to put capital to work. Before I roll the tape on this conversation, I want to remind you of an event that I am hosting on April 20, the first ever contrarian investor virtual conference. This will be held on a via web conference. I’m hosting this in partnership with value walk. And we actually just moved the time to 8am. So it’ll we’ll be recording this and hosting this at 8am on Monday, April 20. And I’m very excited because there are several hedge fund managers that have signed on and a couple of them have promised to present ideas that they haven’t previously shared. And I fully expect these ideas to move markets when they are discussed. And that’s why we moved this to the start of the day before The market open. To find out more about this event, you can go to contrarian pod.com slash event, contrarian pod.com slash event. And it’s all over my social media feed as well at pod contrarian on Twitter. So all that out of the way, let’s roll the tape on this conversation. Here you go.

Hedi Ben Mlouka 3:25
I’m the CEO and founder of FIM Partners. In a nutshell, FIM Partners is one of the leading frontier investors. We’ve been in existence since 2000, the end of 2008. And we’ve been investing in what we call high growth markets or frontier market by our own definition, which is basically the small emerging markets in Asia. I’m talking about Pakistan, Philippines, Bangladesh, and all of the MENA region. So that goes from the GCC countries Saudi Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Oman, North Africa and also parts of sub Saharan Africa and I’m thinking in Nigeria and and a few other larger countries in the large countries in Africa. We are mostly in equity firm. So we basically we focus on public equities, in these markets that I just mentioned to you and we are also managing money on behalf of very large institutions globally. So from university endowments, pensions, sovereigns, because I sovereign, these are long term investors in the frontier markets. So they like obviously the opportunity said they like the growth profile, but also the fact that these economies are less integrated within the global economies and therefore offer an opportunity set which are to some extent different from what they would find in larger emerging markets, such as China in India etc. Our my approach to investing has always been to, to, to think as a business owner. And not to think like a minority, passive shareholder in any of the companies we invest in. So always want to create a very strong relationship with the management, sometimes even board members, but also understand the ecosystem of all of the companies we invest in. So, always privilege going into visiting the companies we invest in meeting, speaking to their suppliers, to their clients, to the competitors, even in the private space, etc. And that’s how I build the business. And that’s why I think we’ve been very successful investing in these in these markets. So I’ve been doing this myself for the last 20 years almost before FMI. I worked for Merrill Lynch in London, responsible for central Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa.

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Season 2, Episode 12: Market ‘Melt Up’ Will Continue Until Late Summer Before Onset of ‘Deflationary Bust’

With David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors

David Hunter, chief macro strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors, has for some time predicted a final “melt up” stage of the market cycle before markets crash.

This stage is now underway as markets recover from an initial sell-off caused by the coronavirus (which Hunter admits he did not and could not have predicted).

What comes next is a “secular top that I expect to be the high-water mark for decades to come,” he says. After markets peak around late summer, a “global deflationary bust” will ensue, with as much as 80% downside for equities.

Prefer to read the transcript of this talk? Become a premium subscriber to get access. Sign up now with a special discount that will expire soon.

Content: 

  • Target of 4,000 for the S&P as part of “the final melt up” (2:23)
  • The downside target. Forget the “retest narrative” in the short term (10:39). Markets should drop by 80% from the top (11:58)
  • Unprecedented leverage doesn’t leave policymakers much time (14:09)
  • Background on David: 47 years in financial markets (18:46)
  • The current crisis in historical context (26:35)
  • Deflation allows for liquidity injections. Until it creates inflation (32:01)
  • Discussing the potential political and social fallout from the coming economic crisis (36:12)
  • How deflation will eventually turn to inflation (40:20)
  • Discussion of the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status (45:56)
  • Bullish outlook for gold and silver (51:37)

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Not intended as investment advice.

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