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Tag: geopolitics

Season 3, Episode 5: The Case for Precious Metals Miners, With Sean Fieler, Equinox Partners

Published March 4, 2021

Sean Fieler, president and chief investment officer at hedge fund firm Equinox Partners, joins the podcast to make the case for an unloved part of the equity markets: gold and silver miners.

This case is based on several variables, starting with unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy that has marked this particular epoch in global financial markets. “The idea that gold and silver wouldn’t do well in that environment are totally at odds with financial history,” says Fieler.

It goes a lot further than this, of course. Fieler discusses the variables and even presents some favorite stocks.

Content Segments
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the section directly)
  • The case for underlying gold and silver miners, including the compounding of fiscal and monetary policy. (3:03);
  • Why invest in miners rather than in the physical commodity, or futures contracts thereon? (7:26);
  • One concern with ETFs tracking prices of physical metals: the administrators are not necessarily reliable counterparties (9:00);
  • There are risks with owning miners as well, of course (11:41);
  • More information on the guest (15:17);
  • One surprising fact: West Africa is a good place to build a mine. Latin America is much more difficult (17:27);
  • Ghana’s fledgling securities market may be a good opportunity for investment (19:48);
  • One favorite stock: Endeavor Mining Corp (OTC:EDVMF) (21:35);
  • A microcap name to watch: RTG Mining (GREY: RTGGF), a copper and gold miner in the Philippines (25:19);
  • A little background on the fund, which predates the gym of the same name (27:52).
Not intended as investment advice.

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Season 3, Episode 2: What Will Likely Prick The Everything Bubble, With Chris Stanton, Sunrise Capital

Published January 27, 2021

Chris Stanton of Sunrise Capital rejoins the podcast to discuss his views of what will upend the raging bull market in risk assets.

Content Segments

  • How we got here: the market price action is similar to late summer, 2019 (3:49);
  • However, there are some big differences between then and now, starting with volatility (5:44);
  • What’s awry? Two things should have people’s attention. One is that the retail market has figured out how to achieve leverage. The second is market structure (10:46);
  • Big market makers are being eliminated by the day, including hedge funds (16:59);
  • Where are the investors who have been moving the market? Not in the U.S. (20:38)
  • Believe it or not, U.S. investors do not appear to be “all in” on the bull market yet (24:48);
  • Central banks are setting up everybody’s portfolio to be long. At the same time passive indexing has eroded cash reserves (29:57);
  • The “terrible” setup is in place: Vol is elevated against what it has done historically, the market structure is not set up to provide liquidity when it is needed most, and investors are in increasingly crowded trades (37:57);
  • What ends the bull market? First thing could be a resurfacing of trade tensions with China (45:56);
  • Vaccines could provide a “straight line” out of the coronavirus crisis, removing the need for ultra-loose interest rate policy (49:00);
  • It’s only going to take one sentence in the Fed minutes to spook markets. Watch for the whole thing to be politicized too (50:49);
  • The next correction we see is not going to be 5%. “I will bet you it’s 15…it’s going to scare the living daylights out of you again.” (53:39);
  • Commercial real estate is something else worth watching (57:04);
  • For now watch for the bull market to run until March. If that happens, short opportunities should be abundant (1:00:01);
  • Finally, keep an eye out for a currency crisis to trip up investors (1:02:02).
MoreSeason 3, Episode 2: What Will Likely Prick The Everything Bubble, With Chris Stanton, Sunrise Capital
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Season 3, Episode 1: The Biden Administration and Risks to Global Growth

Published January 21, 2021

With Barry Knapp, Ironsides Macroeconomics

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his view on “policy tremors” that could upend economic and risk asset growth in 2021.

(Barry’s dog Oliver makes a brief appearance as well).

Content
(Spotify users can skip directly to the segment by clicking on the timestamp)
  • The current reflation theme is part of a recovery from what was actually a two-year recession in global manufacturing, trade, and capital spending (4:19);
  • The Federal Reserve will initially be pleased with rising inflation, having slayed the deflation boogeyman. This will eventually morph into discomfort (first from regional bank presidents) and concerns that inflation is moving “too far, too fast” (11:43);
  • Once this happens, Fed officials will begin discussing “policy normalization” and real rates will start to move, triggering a risk-off event (13:19);
  • The Georgia elections the first week of the year were a kind of “sneak preview” of this event, but look to mid-year for the real McCoy (16:37);
  • Another important indicator: Watch house prices through the spring selling season (20:40);
  • Two details of President-elect Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal that are not fully appreciated by the market (21:41);
  • The Democrats will likely ask for more than Republicans are willing to give, triggering reconciliation that would be a rude awakening for the market (28:38);
  • If the $1400 stimulus checks go through it may lead to another “speculative blow off” (30:50);
  • There is no indication President-elect Biden is willing to roll back tariffs on China, though he could re-engage in TPP. But anybody expecting a broader unwinding of the trade war “is pretty off-base” (33:00);
  • Look for further USD weakness, particularly against the yen and the euro (37:57);
  • Favorite asset classes for 2021 (41:09)
MoreSeason 3, Episode 1: The Biden Administration and Risks to Global Growth
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