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Tariffs, Strong US Dollar, Stocks Rally, M&A: What to Expect From Trump-onomics 2.0 — Should It Happen (Szn 6, Epsd 19)

Published October 30, 2024

With Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex

Marc Chapman of Bannockburn Global Forex rejoins the podcast to discuss all things US election and the impact a Trump victory would have on economics and financial markets.

This podcast episode was recorded Monday, Oct. 28, 2024 and was made available for premium subscribers that same day. More information about premium subscriptions is available on our Substack.

Content Highlights

  • The impact of a Trump victory next Tuesday is seen as greater as the impact of a Harris victory. What this means for markets and the economy (2:11);
  • What if Trump doesn’t win? That has become the contrarian take (3:45);
  • How it all might affect Mexico, the US’ largest trading partner (5:40);
  • The US-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement is up for review next year. Expect more concessions from Mexico regardless of who’s in the White House (and Congress) (12:22);
  • However the outlook is not all bad for all Mexican securities… (15:40);
  • Concerns Trump will try to limit the Federal Reserve’s independence (19:38);
  • Don’t overlook the possibility of a recession early in the next president’s term (25:44);
  • Trump victory may lead to more mergers and acquisitions (26:50).

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Transcript

MoreTariffs, Strong US Dollar, Stocks Rally, M&A: What to Expect From Trump-onomics 2.0 — Should It Happen (Szn 6, Epsd 19)
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The Bull Case for Industrial Commodities, AI, and More (Szn 6, Epsd 17)Podcast episode cover art feat Tony Greer

The Bull Case for Industrial Commodities, AI, and More (Szn 6, Epsd 17)

Published October 1, 2024

Tony Greer of TG Macro joins the podcast to discuss his bullish view on industrial commodities, especially oil, AI, the upcoming presidential election, and more.

Content Highlights

  • Why energy commodities, precious and base metals are all set up to rally (1:31);
  • China’s stimulus package boosted industrial metals. The bounce should not be limited to the short term… (4:57);
  • There are a number of ways to express the ‘long commodities’ trade. ETFs may be the simplest… (8:59)
  • The bullish case for uranium (10:37);
  • Don’t fade the AI story (14:20);
  • The inevitable cryptocurrency discussion (17:04);
  • Background on the guest (22:30);
  • Listener question: What’s the inflection point for a move higher in industrial commodities? (26:10);
  • Election discussion (28:17).

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Not investment advice.

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Fed’s Next Move, Trump 2.0, Opportunities in AI, Argentina (Szn 6, Epsd 15)Podcast episode cover art featuring James Fishback

Fed’s Next Move, Trump 2.0, Opportunities in AI, Argentina (Szn 6, Epsd 15)

Published September 10, 2024

With James Fishback, Azorio Partners

James Fishback, founder of Azoria Partners, joins the podcast to discuss the Fed’s shift in monetary policy, opportunities afforded by another Trump administration, why AI hype is real, and a host of other issues.

James Fishback, founder of Azoria Partners, joins the podcast to discuss the Fed’s shift in monetary policy, opportunities afforded by another Trump administration, why AI hype is real, and a host of other issues.

This podcast was recorded on Sept. 4 and was being made available to premium subscribers that same day. More information about premium subscriptions is available here.

NB: The guest is outspoken on certain political beliefs discussed here. These views are not necessarily shared by the host or the Contrarian Investor Podcast more generally.

Content Highlights

  • The Federal Reserve is expect to cut 200 basis points off of interest rates when all is said and done. The reality should fall well short of that measure… (1:37);
  • The US is economy growing in aggregate. Pain points are felt among lower socio-economic classes (4:44);
  • The major change will not come from a major shift in monetary policy but what happens fiscally, with the November election (9:16);
  • How to trade a Republican sweep? There’s an acronym: T-R-U-M-P (10:54);
  • Many companies have taken advantage of cheap labor supplied by illegal immigration. Their stocks will suffer once this is rolled back… (15:31);
  • AI is real. Productivity gains will be massive (17:44);
  • Crypto discussion. The best opportunity for bulls may to bet on lower volatility for Bitcoin… (22:47);
  • Background on the guest (28:33);
  • Azoria’s first ETF will be called the Meritocracy Fund. The strategy (33:38);
  • Another opportunity: Argentina (43:18)

More Information About the Guest

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