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The Trend is Your Friend. Right Now It’s Positive (Szn 6, Epsd 6)Podcast episode cover art feat Enrique Abeyta

The Trend is Your Friend. Right Now It’s Positive (Szn 6, Epsd 6)

Published April 5, 2024

With Enrique Abeyta, HX Research

Enrique Abeyta of HX Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his (constructive) views on the stock market, why commercial real estate concerns are overdone, and to provide one stock pick — and it’s not Nvidia, though he does discuss that at some length.

Some mature language is used at a few points. Sensitive listeners should be advised. 

The guest’s microphone setup is significantly better than the host’s so don’t get discouraged by the host sounding like he’s hiding in a cave at the open.

Content Highlights

  • Trends are underrated. Many investors don’t respect them or understand what they mean. The current trend is clearly long-term bullish for stocks (2:21);
  • However over the short term there could (probably will) be a pull back — as appears to be happening the week after recording (5:24);
  • On the whole, however, the outlook is very constructive. So constructive that the guest has only seen this clarity 10 times or less in his 30-year career (12:30);
  • When it comes to the Federal Reserve, there is a strong possibility interest rate policy stays roughly the same… (15:36);
  • Contrarian take: there’s no need to worry about commercial real estate: (19:00);
  • Regional banks presented an opportunity a year ago. New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) is not an opportunity now (23:54);
  • Views on Nvidia (NVDA): not super constructive (28:20);
  • One long term idea: Independent power producer Talen Energy (TLNE), owner of a nuclear power plant. The company recently emerged from bankruptcy (34:51).

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Trader With 380% Gains in 2022 Tells Us Why He’s Fully Allocated to Cash (Szn 5, Ep 6)

Published March 7, 2023

Season 5, Episode 6 feat Mark Szemeszki

This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win.

Mark Szemeszki joins the podcast to discuss his highly profitable short crypto trades from last year and why his business cycle theory has him sitting in cash.

Content Highlights

  • Three-hundred-and-eighty percent (380%) returns last year. How did he do it? (2:47);
  • The macro view and leading indicators are pointing to a recession right now, which makes risk-taking more problematic in the short term (4:17);
  • His short crypto trades predate the FTX saga (7:33);
  • More on his business cycle theory (10:32);
  • Inflationary pressure is real, including from China’s reopening (13:37);
  • More information on catalysts sought when shorting altcoins (16:17);
  • Shorting the narrative on altcoins is a good strategy if you can get a good entry point (20:20);
  • Background on the guest (25:08);
  • More on his trades last year (27:13);
  • Probably 99% of crytpo currencies are useless, even Bitcoin and Ethereum (29:37).

More Information on the Guest

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Hard Assets the Place to Be in ’23: Kyrill Asatur, Centerfin (Szn 4, Ep. 34)

Published December 8, 2022

This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win.

Kyrill Asatur, co-founder and CEO of Centerfin, joins the podcast to discuss his view on asset allocation going into 2023: why he is bullish on hard assets like energy and bearish on fixed income — and why the inflationary environment is likely going to stick around.

Content Highlights

  • How Centerfin was set up coming into this year and what went into its contrarian decision to avoid fixed income (4:06);
  • Current views on the market after a tough year (5:25);
  • Centerfin’s take is to be long hard assets, including commodities and commodity-linked equities while continuing to avoid fixed income like bonds (7:44);
  • The environment is different now. There has been a regime change since 2017. Inflation can’t just be exported anymore (9:48);
  • There will likely be a recession. Once we emerge from it, leading industries will probably be different than they were in past recoveries (11:18);
  • Why Centerfin is bullish energy and how they are playing it (12:55);
  • Their chosen ETF to get exposure to clean energy (14:48);
  • There is no need to buy international (ex-US) energy stocks (16:36);
  • Short discussion on the concept of introducing different prices for different uses of energy (18:48);
  • Re-shoring from China with Apple (AAPL) moving all its production out of the country and how to potentially play that trend (20:46);
  • Background on the guest and what got him to start Centerfin (25:53);
  • Distressed investing remains out of reach for most investors but Centerfin is considering ways to change that… (30:52);
  • The bullish case for copper (39:13);
  • How best to gain exposure to uranium (40:00).

More on Kyrill Asatur and Centerfin

This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing here is intended as investment advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions.

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MoreHard Assets the Place to Be in ’23: Kyrill Asatur, Centerfin (Szn 4, Ep. 34)
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