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Tag: economy

Season 3, Episode 23: The Long Term Bull Case for Oil (Updated)

Published October 7, 2021

With Todd Sullivan, ValuePlays.com

(Updates with third video below).

Todd Sullivan of ValuePlays.com joins the podcast to discuss his long term bullish views on oil.

The guest also provides his favorite stocks — all portfolio holdings of his — for investors to take advantage of this trend.

Content Highlights

  • Big picture elements of supply, demand, and infrastructure that are driving the long term bull case for oil (2:50);

  • What about the potential for an economic slowdown in the U.S. and more importantly China? How might that impact things? (7:39);

  • Background on the guest and how he turned his passion as a blogger and investor into his current position (11:17);
  • The three energy names he really likes right now (18:51);

  • Energy has been unpopular for some time and people are under the illusion that gas and oil are going away. “Nothing could be further from the truth.” (25:28);

  • Why transport companies are more of a pure-play on energy prices than drillers (29:30);

  • $100/barrel oil is a “realistic scenario” and prices could stay high after that as the macro outlook remains constructive (37:17);

  • The bullish outlook for the cannabis industry in the U.S. — this will be the topic of a future episode (42:49).
MoreSeason 3, Episode 23: The Long Term Bull Case for Oil (Updated)
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Season 3, Episode 21: Dangers Lurk in Market Structure’s Changing Dynamics (Updated)

Published September 14, 2021

With Michael Green, Portfolio Manager and Chief Strategist, Simplify Asset Management

(Updates with transcript below. To get the transcript earlier, sign up to become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this and other benefits).

Michael Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, joins the podcast to discuss the changing dynamics of market structure and how these are creating the potential for havoc.

Content Highlights:

  • Market structure: what it means and how it has changed (3:30);

  • How passive investing pools are changing the equation (6:26);

  • How Tesla (TSLA) is the perfect case study for this phenomenon (8:39);

  • The Fed’s impact when it comes to the bond market. This has ripple effect (13:02)

  • The interest rate and inflation outlook in the U.S. (15:34);

  • Background on the guest (20:55);

  • Passive investing has caused a host of confusing signals where the market cycle is concerned (24:37);

  • Business cycles are still alive and well, and this can of course impact the market. Where that stands today (30:05);

  • Market ‘skew’ is dramatically higher and chances of a collapse are increasing. “The market senses something is wrong.” (34:31).
MoreSeason 3, Episode 21: Dangers Lurk in Market Structure’s Changing Dynamics (Updated)
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Season 3, Episode 20: The ‘New Normal’ of Blue-Collar Labor Shortages

Published August 30, 2021

With Gad Levanon, head of Labor Market Institute at The Conference Board

Gad Levanon, head of Labor Market Institute at The Conference Board, joins the podcast to discuss his views of employment trends.

Levanon’s analysis differs from the consensus view of labor markets. In his view, unusual demographic and educational trends are causing a ‘new normal’ of shortages among blue-collar workers. These jobs can be expected to see fast wage growth, bringing a host of restraints on the next stage of economic expansion.

Content Highlights:

  • The ‘new normal’ of labor shortages (3:35);

  • The economic impact of rising wages for blue-collar workers: corporate profits and higher consumer prices (7:29);

  • Automation has the potential to help the trend somewhat, but there are reasons to be skeptical (10:37);

  • How close is the U.S. to reaching full employment? (14:29);
  • What all of this says for the next stage of the economic cycle (16:57);
  • Background on the guest (20:22);

  • The ‘work-from-home’ trend and how that is impacting things (22:47);

  • Other trends in employment and labor markets (27:27);
  • The guest’s primary concerns about the economy and society at present (31:22).
MoreSeason 3, Episode 20: The ‘New Normal’ of Blue-Collar Labor Shortages
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