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Tag: economy

Szn 3, Episode 27: Forget Inflation — Deflationary Forces Are the More Vexing Issue

Published November 16, 2021

Content Highlights

  • The market is pricing in a series of interest rate hikes for the coming 24 months. But the Fed has backed off of a tightening schedule before (2:18);
  • Bonds have been selling off, but investors will find themselves on the wrong side of this trade when Fed backs off of tapering (4:07);

  • Inflation is a supply-side problem that the Fed doesn’t have control of. Markets are too fragile to handle rate hikes (5:06);The latest FOMC meeting where tapering was announced “was probably the most dovish taper you could come up with” (9:20);

  • Deflationary forces, starting with China, are a major issue the market is overlooking. This despite the best (non-publicized) efforts by the Chinese government (10:49);

  • It’s not just China though; demographics and debt are part of the longer-term trend toward deflation (19:19);

  • Background on the guest (22:33);

  • What about potential headwinds, from China or elsewhere? (24:58);

  • Unwinding Evergrande: Where is the exposure? (29:05);

  • How much longer can the Fed taper before their hand is forced to back off? (31:17);

  • What indicators should investors keep an eye on to monitor this situation? (34:35).

MoreSzn 3, Episode 27: Forget Inflation — Deflationary Forces Are the More Vexing Issue
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Season 3, Episode 26: David Hunter on the Coming Stock Market Bust

Published November 8, 2021

David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to provide updates on his prediction that stock markets are in the final stage of a parabolic melt-up that will be followed by a global bust.

Hunter’s initial targets for the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, and other U.S. stock market indexes have been breached, causing him to provide new, even more bullish, targets.

The bust will likely start with a ‘second-quarter swoon’ next year, caused by the Federal Reserve overreacting to inflation. The deflationary meltdown will then cause another overreaction by central banks and government fiscal policies.

Not intended as investment advice.

Content Highlights

  • Hunter’s new targets on the S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 (2:50);

  • Oil and oil stocks have peaked for this cycle (6:50);

  • The bust should happen about mid-way through 2022 and result in oil prices back in the mid-$20s range (8:25);

  • The cycle will end because the Federal Reserve tightens interest rates due to inflationary pressures (10:28);

  • Central banks around the world are withdrawing quantitative easing and some have even started to adjust interest rates higher. This will affect things and force the Fed’s hand. Resolution of supply chain issues would increase the pressure (15:54);

  • China will definitely play a major role in the bust, though Evergrande is probably just the tip of the iceberg (19:27);

  • What happens after the bust is an unprecedented flow of liquidity. Yes, even more than COVID. There will be bank failures, though more in Europe and Asia than the U.S. (21:17);

  • Central banks only have one tool to combat this, which is quantitative easing. They will be matched by fiscal stimulus. It will be “March of 2020 on steroids, basically. Multiple steroids” (26:07).
MoreSeason 3, Episode 26: David Hunter on the Coming Stock Market Bust
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Season 3, Episode 24: The Lessons From Iceland’s Financial Collapse, From One Who Was There

Published October 20, 2021

With Jared Bibler, Author of ‘Iceland’s Secret’

Jared Bibler joins the podcast to discuss his book ‘Iceland’s Secret’ and his experience living through that country’s financial collapse in 2008.

It was a very dark period in Iceland’s history, with individuals losing homes and savings and not being able to buy food. The author experienced this first-hand, initially as an asset manager and later working for regulators seeking to bring the responsible parties to justice.

The crisis in Iceland shocked the world but was quickly overshadowed by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the U.S. Today it is largely forgotten outside of Iceland. But the author says his experience holds many lessons for the present day.

If nothing else, his experience holds lessons for those interested in hedging against a total collapse of capital markets and civil society.

MoreSeason 3, Episode 24: The Lessons From Iceland’s Financial Collapse, From One Who Was There
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