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Tag: economy

Risks Point to Downside in 2024 (Szn 5, Epsd 29)

With Kyrill Asatur, Centerfin

This podcast episode was recorded Dec. 20, 2023 and made available exclusively — without ads or announcements — for premium subscribers that same day. This is just one of the benefits of becoming a premium subscriber. The others are detailed on our Supercast or Substack pages.

Kyrill Asatur, co-founder and CEO of Centerfin, re-joins the podcast to discuss his views going into 2024 and the likelihood there won’t be a ‘soft landing’ for the economy next year.

Content Highlights

  • Consensus estimates for 2024 are going to be wrong, just like they were for this year and every year before it (2:12);
  • Coming in to this year the banking sector was a concern, though as it turned out for the wrong reasons (4:39);
  • The catalyst for the reversal this fall and the new, dovish Fed (7:26);
  • The contrarian call is that they’re won’t be a soft landing — or a stock market crash (11:44);
  • Possible explanation for the ‘Fed pivot’ (16:48);
  • How the guest is allocating assets going into 2024 (23:56);
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) discussion (29:02).

More on the Guest

This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing here is intended as investment advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions.

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Short-Term Treasuries: The Place to Be (Szn 5, Episode 28)

Feat Jared Dillian, Daily Dirt Nap

This podcast episode was recorded Nov. 29, 2023 and made available to premium subscribers the following day. To become a premium subscriber, sign up through our Substack or Supercast.

Jared Dillian of the Daily Dirt Nap joins the podcast to discuss his bullish views on short-term Treasuries and less optimistic outlook for the US economy. He also discusses his work as an author and views on disparate issues facing society. 

Note: The podcast episode contains some mature language.

Content Highlights

  • The ‘soft landing’ scenario appears to have become the base case. Dillian doesn’t quite buy that (1:37);
  • To be bullish on short-term Treasuries one needs to believe the Fed is going to cut rates. That is imminent (4:26);
  • Addressing the inflation bogeyman. The risk has maybe receded over the short term, but what about a return over the medium term? There is historical precedent for this from the last time inflation was a serious force in the US… (9:37);
  • Background on the guest and a broad discussion of his time at Lehman Brothers (including its downfall), working on Wall Street, career paths, education, and more…(15:48)

More About the Guest

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Stocks, Bonds to Rally in Q4: David Hunter (Szn 5, Episode 25)

A short actionable highlights reel from this podcast was released to premium subscribers last Thursday, Oct. 12 — the same day it was recorded. The full episode and transcript were made available to premium subscribers the following day. Become a premium subscriber by signing up on our Substack or Supercast.

David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, Fed, stocks, and bonds.

Not investment advice.

Content Highlights

  • Views on the bond market (1:31);
  • The Federal Reserve will likely pause again at its next meeting, on Nov. 1 (6:41);
  • Views on stocks (11:30);
  • Once consensus emerges that the Fed is ‘done’ it will remove a major wall of worry and headwind the magnitude of which few are anticipating… (16:14);
  • Targets for S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Industrials, 10-year yields… (21:21);
  • How the ‘bust’ scenario will play out (27:02),

To contact David Hunter and find out about subscribing to his newsletter, you need to send him a direct message on Twitter. His handle is @DaveHContrarian. The host will not forward your messages.

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