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Tag: economy

Season 1, Episode 16: No Ill Effects from Yield Curve Inversion for US Economy

The 2-year/10-year yield curve inversion is a bad sign for the global economy, but less so for the U.S., says Barry Knapp

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics joins the podcast to discuss the 2-year/10-year yield curve inversion. The gauge is viewed as a harbinger of recession and while global trade has clearly slowed, the U.S. economy should not necessarily see any ill effects in the immediate future, says Knapp.

Content:

The 3-month/10-year yield curve versus the 2-year/10-year (2:52), for historical precedence see Japan in the early 2000s (7:50), recession in global trade but not in the U.S. (8:42), positives for the U.S. economy (13:00).

For more information on our guest: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com/

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Season 1, Episode 13: China and the Everything Bubble, With Kevin Smith of Crescat Capital

Kevin Smith of hedge fund firm Crescat Capital in Denver joins the podcast to discuss his views on China and other asset bubbles, which he considers ripe for implosion.

China heading into an economic downturn (2:00) and why its currency hasn’t faced any real devaluation, the situation in Hong Kong (3:50) and short HKD trade, the maturing economic expansion in the US (7:37), fiat currency debasement and bullish case for precious metals (11:35), background about Kevin (17:32).

Not intended as investment advice.

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Season 1, Episode 11: US Expansion May Continue For Four More Years, Says Commerce Trust Chief Economist

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, disagrees with the prevailing consensus that the US expansion is at or near recession.

While growth may have slowed, the economy is in much better shape than is believed by many, with few near term chances of recession according to Colbert, citing leading economic indicators.

Indeed, “if we had to put a number on it…we would push it out towards as much as four more years” of economic expansion.

The market is underestimating the response by policymakers, including by the Federal Reserve, to ward off a slowdown. 

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