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Corona virus, COVID 19

Season 2, Episode 16: Chinese Economic Reforms Are Already a Thing of the Past, With Dexter Roberts

Published May 20, 2020

The author of “The Myth of Chinese Capitalism” discusses the ramifications of his thesis

Dexter Roberts joins the podcast to discuss his book “The Myth of Chinese Capitalism.”

In Roberts’ view, economic reforms have already been curtailed under current political leadership. China’s middle class, which has grown almost exponentially in recent decades, remains limited mostly to large coastal cities. The rural countryside, which still represents half the country’s population, remains well below the middle class — and is stuck there, in part due to outdated demographic policies.

The options for Chinese policymakers are limited. They have so far not managed to spread the wealth effects of their “pivot” to a services-based economy, and may have even exacerbated the problem. This all has wide-ranging consequences: for China, for western companies, and for the world.

Content Segments:

  • The first myth: capitalism as short hand for economic reforms (5:39)
  • The second key myth: the middle class will inexorably continue to grow larger (6:35)
  • The global supply-chain diversification, started several years ago and exacerbated by COVID-19, is effectively ending China’s “factory to the world” model (9:21)
  • Authorities’ options are very limited (10:45)
  • Where does this leave Chinese consumers? The days of western companies expanding sales through the growth of China’s middle class are gone (13:10)
  • Background on the gust (20:15)
  • What might the future of China hold? (25:09) The possibility of social unrest (27:14)
  • Brief discussion of Hong Kong: “Don’t think that the protests are over.” (30:22)

Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

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Season 2, Episode 14: The Anti-Quant Quant, Beating Indexes With Three ETFs

Published May 6, 2020

With Chad Glauser, Alpine Quantitative Management

Chad Glauser of Denver-based Alpine Quantitative Management joins the podcast to discuss his fund’s strategy of using just three ETFs as a way to manage risk, gauge volatility, and produce returns.

The three ETFs track short-term Treasuries, long-term bonds, and the S&P 500. Alpine has been actively trading the strategy since late 2017 after an incubation period of about two years. The approach has worked, with the fund beating the hedge fund index for 22 straight months (and counting).

Content:
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment in question)

  • About the strategy: quick background and using volatility as an indicator (1:10)
  • The “real-world example” of what happened in January and February, and how the fund adopted (2:42)
  • How often, and quickly, the portfolio adjusts and why it is 100% allocated at all times (4:39)
  • The current view of markets (5:46)
  • Why Alpine views itself as the “anti-quant” quant (9:04)
  • Background on Chad Glauser (12:35)
  • How to get in touch (20:04)

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Not intended as investment advice.

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Season 2, Episode 13: Buy Individual Stocks or Bonds, Not ETFs

Published April 29, 2020

With Maya Joelson, Metapoint Advisors

Maya Joelson, founder and president of Metapoint Advisors, joins the podcast to discuss her view of exchange-traded funds.

These instruments are seen as efficient and cheap ways for investors, especially retail investors, to gain access to various asset classes. But this is misguided, especially when it comes to ETFs tracking bond markets. Even stock ETFs aren’t always a good idea. Investors are better served picking individual securities themselves (or hiring somebody to do it for them).

Content segments (with timestamp):

  • A short history on the rise of ETFs in the U.S. (2:10)
  • Why bond ETFs don’t make as much sense as equity ETFs (6:49)
  • How long before investors get wise to this? (10:41)
  • What about stock ETFs, how efficient are they? (15:20)
  • Background on the guest (20:24)
  • “Better Safe Than SARS-y”: Looking back on the call to derisk portfolios in early February and where we are now (25:43) 
  • Buy stocks that should do well in this environment: consumer staples, healthcare, Kraft Heinz, Chewy (29:53)

Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

For more information on the guest:

Not intended as investment advice.

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