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The Coming Credit Crunch and Death of Unicorns: Leo Schmidt (Szn 4, Ep 11)

Published April 18, 2022

Leo Schmidt of River Eddy Capital Management rejoins the podcast to discuss the coming credit crunch, its impact on stock market sectors, and where to invest to protect one’s portfolio.

Content Highlights

  • So-called “unicorn” companies, or the darlings of the VC crowd, and others that cannot generate cashflow, will face a tough reckoning (3:17);
  • Undermining this is “a complete change of psychology” in terms of velocity of money (6:27);
  • What if the Fed reverses course? It’s not so simple (8:52);
  • Oil is a short: “Oil is the ultimate liquid commodity” but there is a place for pipeline stocks… (11:38);
  • What stocks can thrive in this type of environment? Look first to medical company spin-offs (19:13);
  • Another area to look: Business development companies, or BDCs. This is a risky part of the market but there is at least one BDC making first-lien loans, which are the safest part of the capital structure… (26:23);
  • Quick epilogue on China’s latest Covid lockdown. There are ways to play the move away from supply chain issues that result (35:58);

Quick Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

MoreThe Coming Credit Crunch and Death of Unicorns: Leo Schmidt (Szn 4, Ep 11)
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The Fallacy of Renewable Energy: Leigh Goehring, Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates (Szn 4, Ep 10)

Published April 6, 2022

Leigh Goehring, managing partner of Goehring & Rozencwajg, joins the podcast to discuss his view that most renewable energies are ineffective at reducing carbon output and pointless as investments.

Content Highlights

  • The consensus opinion is that renewable energy will solve many of the problems of CO2 production and energy needs. This is false (3:12);
  • The “terrible energy efficiency” associated with renewables will make the world poorer (5:00);
  • What is the problem with solar and wind and why are they so inefficient? (7:20);
  • It’s no coincidence that the energy crisis started in Germany, which is now forced to import coal (12:20);
  • Vaclav Smil and the premise that there has never been a new technology with inferior energy efficiency that displaced the old technology (13:59);
  • The ulterior motives behind China’s green energy push (18:33);
  • The “great hope” for a Moore’s Law of wind mills and solar panels is a fallacy. Input prices have declined because energy prices have (21:05);
  • Where does that leave electric cars? (25:00);
  • Background on the guest (33:42);
  • What parts of the energy industry are better targets for investment right now? Look to uranium for starters, “the perfect solution to our problems” (37:17);
  • Copper is “the quintessential green metal” also facing a supply/demand imbalance. Also agricultural commodities, grains, fertilizers, nitrogen, and potash (41:26);
  • Mosaic (MOS) is one of the world’s largest phosphate and potash producers, and a stock the guest is particularly bullish on — it trades at just 5x earnings versus 25x at the peak (47:07);
  • An agricultural crisis could soon be upon us, leading to hoarding of supplies (49:58).

More Information About the Guest

Quick Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

MoreThe Fallacy of Renewable Energy: Leigh Goehring, Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates (Szn 4, Ep 10)
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Season 3, Episode 23: The Long Term Bull Case for Oil (Updated)

Published October 7, 2021

With Todd Sullivan, ValuePlays.com

(Updates with third video below).

Todd Sullivan of ValuePlays.com joins the podcast to discuss his long term bullish views on oil.

The guest also provides his favorite stocks — all portfolio holdings of his — for investors to take advantage of this trend.

Content Highlights

  • Big picture elements of supply, demand, and infrastructure that are driving the long term bull case for oil (2:50);

  • What about the potential for an economic slowdown in the U.S. and more importantly China? How might that impact things? (7:39);

  • Background on the guest and how he turned his passion as a blogger and investor into his current position (11:17);
  • The three energy names he really likes right now (18:51);

  • Energy has been unpopular for some time and people are under the illusion that gas and oil are going away. “Nothing could be further from the truth.” (25:28);

  • Why transport companies are more of a pure-play on energy prices than drillers (29:30);

  • $100/barrel oil is a “realistic scenario” and prices could stay high after that as the macro outlook remains constructive (37:17);

  • The bullish outlook for the cannabis industry in the U.S. — this will be the topic of a future episode (42:49).
MoreSeason 3, Episode 23: The Long Term Bull Case for Oil (Updated)
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