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Tag: China

Trader With 380% Gains in 2022 Tells Us Why He’s Fully Allocated to Cash (Szn 5, Ep 6)

Published March 7, 2023

Season 5, Episode 6 feat Mark Szemeszki

This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win.

Mark Szemeszki joins the podcast to discuss his highly profitable short crypto trades from last year and why his business cycle theory has him sitting in cash.

Content Highlights

  • Three-hundred-and-eighty percent (380%) returns last year. How did he do it? (2:47);
  • The macro view and leading indicators are pointing to a recession right now, which makes risk-taking more problematic in the short term (4:17);
  • His short crypto trades predate the FTX saga (7:33);
  • More on his business cycle theory (10:32);
  • Inflationary pressure is real, including from China’s reopening (13:37);
  • More information on catalysts sought when shorting altcoins (16:17);
  • Shorting the narrative on altcoins is a good strategy if you can get a good entry point (20:20);
  • Background on the guest (25:08);
  • More on his trades last year (27:13);
  • Probably 99% of crytpo currencies are useless, even Bitcoin and Ethereum (29:37).

More Information on the Guest

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China Reopening: Underestimating the Impact on Global Economy, Markets (Szn 5, Ep. 2)

Published January 24, 2023

With Mike Edwards, Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers

Mike Edwards, deputy chief investment officer at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, joins the podcast to discuss China’s post-Covid reopening and why its impact on global markets is not being fully priced in by investors.

Content Highlights

  • China’s abrupt U-turn over ‘Zero Covid’ is unquestionably one of the biggest changes to take effect in the global economy over the last few months (2:23);
  • There have been reservations about this reopening, but it is happening with authoritative force and will have a major positive impact (5:08);
  • What about the US de-coupling from China and the embattled real estate sector? (11:00)
  • Where this will be felt most is in markets that have exposure to the Chinese consumer. It also points to Europe and emerging markets outperforming the US (17:54);
  • Chinese consumers were far more restrained than their US counterparts during Covid and have been slower to return — especially tourists. This is not just a one-off in terms of the resurgence of Chinese travel and services (24:20);
  • What to make of the latest economic developments in the US, especially with the consumer? (27:31);
  • Weiss’s house view is that the US will avoid recession this year (34:02);
  • Background on the guest (37:49);
  • China can re-emerge without the US as a major partner (51:36);
  • After some consolidation, the US economic and market cycle is marked by investors seeking to put money to work — slowly (57:18).

More on Mike Edwards

Not investment advice!

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Hard Assets the Place to Be in ’23: Kyrill Asatur, Centerfin (Szn 4, Ep. 34)

Published December 8, 2022

This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win.

Kyrill Asatur, co-founder and CEO of Centerfin, joins the podcast to discuss his view on asset allocation going into 2023: why he is bullish on hard assets like energy and bearish on fixed income — and why the inflationary environment is likely going to stick around.

Content Highlights

  • How Centerfin was set up coming into this year and what went into its contrarian decision to avoid fixed income (4:06);
  • Current views on the market after a tough year (5:25);
  • Centerfin’s take is to be long hard assets, including commodities and commodity-linked equities while continuing to avoid fixed income like bonds (7:44);
  • The environment is different now. There has been a regime change since 2017. Inflation can’t just be exported anymore (9:48);
  • There will likely be a recession. Once we emerge from it, leading industries will probably be different than they were in past recoveries (11:18);
  • Why Centerfin is bullish energy and how they are playing it (12:55);
  • Their chosen ETF to get exposure to clean energy (14:48);
  • There is no need to buy international (ex-US) energy stocks (16:36);
  • Short discussion on the concept of introducing different prices for different uses of energy (18:48);
  • Re-shoring from China with Apple (AAPL) moving all its production out of the country and how to potentially play that trend (20:46);
  • Background on the guest and what got him to start Centerfin (25:53);
  • Distressed investing remains out of reach for most investors but Centerfin is considering ways to change that… (30:52);
  • The bullish case for copper (39:13);
  • How best to gain exposure to uranium (40:00).

More on Kyrill Asatur and Centerfin

This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing here is intended as investment advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions.

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