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Lessons From Financial History (Szn 6, Epsd 4)Cover art, Szn 6, Episode 4 feat Mark Higgins

Lessons From Financial History (Szn 6, Epsd 4)

Published March 13, 2024

With Mark Higgins, Author, ‘Investing in Financial History’

Mark Higgins, author of the new book, Investing in Financial History, joins the podcast to discuss lessons from the past and what period is the most appropriate point of comparison to today’s market environment.

Content Highlights

  • What period from the past compares closest to the one we’re living through now? It’s a combination of several… (1:56);
  • The last time the US — and Federal Reserve — battled serious inflation was from 1965 to the early 1980s. Here there are several parallels to today’s age… (4:36);
  • The Fed appeared to turn more accommodative in December and January. This may have been a mistake (9:04);
  • Financial history is very much a history of panics, but there has not been a major bank run in the US since the Great Depression (11:51);
  • Portfolios have become increasingly complex without proper consideration of cost — and risks (15:40);
  • Decentralized currencies aren’t new and in fact once characterized the US dollar — and for the same reason (fear of central banks and fiat currency, etc). That didn’t end well… (18:06);
  • Background on the guest and how he came to write the book (22:05);
  • Bubbles and their challenges. Some commonalities include the media as trailing indicator… (27:17);
  • The 180 degree turn on public debt by US public officials (29:36);
  • The US dollar will likely be replaced as global reserve currency one day (33:25).

More About the Guest

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Opportunities in Emerging, Frontier Markets (Szn 5, Episode 27)Kevin Carter, EMQQ Global podcast coverart

Opportunities in Emerging, Frontier Markets (Szn 5, Episode 27)

Published November 21, 2023

Featuring Kevin T. Carter, EMQQ Global

Kevin T. Carter, founder and chief investment officer of EMQQ Global, joins the podcast to discuss opportunities in emerging and frontier market stocks. His first lesson: don’t bother with the indexes. The real opportunities are to be found in individual stocks.

Content Highlights

  • The first issue with emerging market investing is the index. These do not accurately reflect the real opportunities (1:19);
  • Individual stocks, especially of technology companies, have performed far better than the underlying index (6:25);
  • There are three mega-trends that point to emerging markets growth over the long term (8:03);
  • South America’s E-commerce giant is not in any EM index. Neither is Brazilian digital bank Nu Holdings (15:14);
  • A broad discussion of China, where things are not always as they appear in the western media… (19:22);
  • Right now all eyes are on India. The story there is still in the early innings, but unfortunately options are limited for investors limited to US exchanges… (42:13);
  • Other markets in South Asia also offer compelling opportunities. Especially Bangladesh (48:58).

More Information on the Guest

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Hard Landing for the US Economy, Mild Recession to Spare Emerging Markets (Szn 5, Epsd 23)Episode 23 coverart feat Ayesha Tariq

Hard Landing for the US Economy, Mild Recession to Spare Emerging Markets (Szn 5, Epsd 23)

Published September 4, 2023

With Ayesha Tariq, MacroVisor

This podcast episode was recorded on Aug. 29 with a ‘highlight’ clip of the most actionable insights released to premium subscribers that same day. Premium subscribers then received the full episode — without ads or interruptions — the following day, on Aug. 30.

Ayesha Tariq, co-founder of MacroVisor, rejoins the podcast to discuss why she is expecting a hard landing for the US economy along with other contrarian views she has about the Federal Reserve and global financial markets.

Content Highlights

  • The ‘soft landing’ scenario has effectively become the base case. Why that’s wrong (1:32);
  • Unlike many (most?) recessions, this one will not be preceded by a Fed-induced credit event. For this reason, it will be milder (4:44);
  • The Federal Reserve is likely to hike at its next meeting on Sept. 20. That will be its last hike this cycle (8:53);
  • The US downturn will not necessarily lead to a global recession (12:58);
  • The outlook for commodities, specifically copper, is bullish despite the bearish economic outlook (18:48);
  • Rate hikes might be off the table, but quantitative tightening could still be incoming in 2024 (23:45);
  • New segment: Listener questions. Whoever’s questions are read wins a free Contrarian mug. First up: what to make of Nvidia and AI (26:36);
  • Next listener question: what to look for in bank earnings? (31:42);
  • One area of the stock market where the guest is particularly bullish (36:35).

For more about the guest, visit her website MacroVisor.com or follow her on Twitter/X.

Not investment advice.

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