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Tag: China

Season 2, Episode 10: Coronavirus Crisis Continues, Expect ‘Rolling’ Recessions

Published March 23, 2020

With Rachel Ziemba, Geo-Economic and Country Risk Expert

Rachel Ziemba joins the podcast to discuss the continuing, and intensifying economic impact from the coronavirus.

It’s become clear that the crisis has caused a demand shock that will likely bring “rolling recessions” in its wake. The most likely scenario appears to be for a “W-shaped” recovery. In the meantime, there is still a lot that go wrong.

Content Segments

  • The demand shock, shift in demand, and rolling recessions (4:27)
  • Unique characteristics of the coronavirus crisis (7:57)
  • Oil and oil-producing countries may be at most risk. Sino-U.S. relations can be expected to suffer (16:35)
  • Background on the guest (25:55)
  • Discussion of historical parallels: some similarities, but there is no precedent (30:16)
  • The unlikely prospect of a “V-shaped” recovery (36:26)
  • How deep might the trough be? (39:55)
  • Are there any safe harbors from this? (47:57)

Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

For more information on the guest:

Not intended as investment advice.

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Season 2, Episode 1: The Next Market Meltdown is Coming

Published January 16, 2020

Sunrise Capital’s Chris Stanton on the What, When, and Where

Chris Stanton, chief investment officer at Sunrise Capital, rejoins the podcast to discuss his bearish views on the market at the start of 2020.

There are reasons to believe a market correction is overdue, Stanton says. Risk is everywhere: geopolitical, volatility, repo markets. A drop of 18% to 20% can be expected before March 31.

Highlights:

  • “Rest assured, we’re heading for a correction and I would argue it’s going to be terrifying when it comes” (5:43)
  • The “Phase 1” deal with China is a temporary measure that will be revoked if Donald Trump wins reelection in November (9:55)
  • A likely catalyst for a correction is in the repo market (11:36)
  • A “volatility-led sell off” is likely before the end of the first quarter (16:12)
  • Where’s inflation? (26:34)
  • It may not take an actual headline for investors to decide equities are overbought (31:01)
  • Background on Stanton’s firm, San Diego-based Sunrise Capital (38:03)
  • The “origin story”: Background on Stanton himself (53:03)
  • What should retail investors do, right now? (1:02:49)

Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

For more information on Sunrise Capital: www.sunrisecapital.com

Not intended as investment advice.

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Season 1, Episode 14: Choosing Battles in Emerging Markets, With Pembroke’s Gregory Mariasch

Published July 31, 2019

Investment opportunities in China, Argentina, and Brazil

Gregory Mariasch, partner at Pembroke Emerging Markets, makes the case for his particular brand of long-short investing. Contrary to the prevailing opinion, there are opportunities in emerging markets that are less correlated to trade war issues between the US and China.

Stock markets in China, Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico are discussed in greater detail.

Content:
Not your grandfather’s emerging markets (2:40), China’s economy and the trade war (5:40), stocks to own (13:20), the bullish case for Argentina (14:30) and Brazil (19:30), reasons to be bearish on Mexico (24:50).

Not intended as investment advice. 

More information about Pembroke: https://www.pembroke-em.com

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