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Tag: China

Szn 4, Ep. 2: The Nascent Sino-U.S. Financial Cold War, with James Fok

Published January 18, 2022

James Fok joins the podcast to discuss his book ‘Financial Cold War: A View of Sino-US Relations from the Financial Markets’. In Fok’s view, the fates of China and the U.S. are highly intertwined, and neither country’s leaders want the conflict to escalate — but that could easily change.

Content Highlights

  • How the financial cold war is defined, some of the ways it is already impacting society and economics, and the risks of greater conflicts (3:06);
  • Is military conflict between the U.S. and China inevitable? (4:49);
  • The fates of the two countries are highly intertwined but the U.S. dollar and global monetary system have exacerbated imbalances (7:46);
  • Why the belief that the USD’s global role is good for the U.S. is a fallacy (11:02);
  • The world needs to become less USD-denominated if the financial Cold War is going to be resolved. There is precedence for this (18:00);
  • Background on the guest (30:00);
  • The state of China’s economy and where it’s headed (33:44);
  • China’s economic problems are clear for all to see, but the social implications are probably being significantly underestimated (36:49).
MoreSzn 4, Ep. 2: The Nascent Sino-U.S. Financial Cold War, with James Fok
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Szn 4, Ep. 1: Barry Knapp on Uncertainty Shocks, Inflation, Economic Growth, and What Else to Expect in 2022

Published January 7, 2022

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his 2022 outlook for the economy and markets. He is broadly optimistic on the former, but less enthusiastic about the latter — at least in the first half of the year — with strong possibility of ‘uncertainty shocks,’ especially around Fed events (sound familiar?) There is also some interesting discussion around interest rates, inflation, and China, among others.

Content Highlights

(Spotify users can link to the start of the section by clicking on the timestamp)

  • A lot has changed in a year, though probably nothing quite as much as the inflation outlook (3:04);
  • Markets and economics should diverge significantly in the first half of the year (4:51);
  • The Federal Reserve is due to embark on a rate-tightening cycle, which should be negative for markets but will be net-neutral, or perhaps even positive for the economy (8:00);
  • Inflation is running hot, but the guest has done some deep research on similar historical epochs and finds the concern less pressing than most (17:20);
  • The key level for inflation is 4% — if the CPI exceeds it consistently there could be trouble. Link to the Fed paper referenced here (21:33);
  • Still, there is a strong possibility for ‘uncertainty shocks’ in the first half of the year (29:52);
  • Finally, China: Reasons to be bearish. Very bearish (34:58).

More Information on the Guest

Quick Video Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

MoreSzn 4, Ep. 1: Barry Knapp on Uncertainty Shocks, Inflation, Economic Growth, and What Else to Expect in 2022
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Szn 3, Episode 27: Forget Inflation — Deflationary Forces Are the More Vexing Issue

Published November 16, 2021

Content Highlights

  • The market is pricing in a series of interest rate hikes for the coming 24 months. But the Fed has backed off of a tightening schedule before (2:18);
  • Bonds have been selling off, but investors will find themselves on the wrong side of this trade when Fed backs off of tapering (4:07);

  • Inflation is a supply-side problem that the Fed doesn’t have control of. Markets are too fragile to handle rate hikes (5:06);The latest FOMC meeting where tapering was announced “was probably the most dovish taper you could come up with” (9:20);

  • Deflationary forces, starting with China, are a major issue the market is overlooking. This despite the best (non-publicized) efforts by the Chinese government (10:49);

  • It’s not just China though; demographics and debt are part of the longer-term trend toward deflation (19:19);

  • Background on the guest (22:33);

  • What about potential headwinds, from China or elsewhere? (24:58);

  • Unwinding Evergrande: Where is the exposure? (29:05);

  • How much longer can the Fed taper before their hand is forced to back off? (31:17);

  • What indicators should investors keep an eye on to monitor this situation? (34:35).

MoreSzn 3, Episode 27: Forget Inflation — Deflationary Forces Are the More Vexing Issue
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