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Tag: bonds

There’s Still Time to Hedge Tail Risk — At Least for Stocks: Kris Sidial (Szn 4, Ep. 29)

Published October 19, 2022

Kris Sidial of The Ambrus Group joins the podcast to discuss tail-risk hedging: how it works, why it’s important, and how investors can still take advantage of volatility mispricings to protect themselves against further downside — at least in stocks.

Content Highlights

  • What is tail risk hedging? (3:19);
  • Traditional hedges haven’t worked, starting with the 60:40 approach. How might investors hedge stock and bond exposure? (6:15);
  • There are numerous options for investors to protect against downturns. But it’s not always as easy as buying put contracts on indexes (8:24);
  • Variance swaps, one way to compound returns on movements in volatility (10:25);
  • Thoughts on UK pensions and what might have caused issues in that segment of the market (15:27);
  • What investors are doing in this environment in terms of tail-risk hedging — there are still opportunities to hedge (20:02);
  • Background on the guest (30:08);
  • Discussion of systemic risk as a result of the layers of options trades and counterparties: “There is a systemic hazard taking place right now in the derivatives market” (39:32);
  • Speaking of risk, what about the regulatory environment? Are regulators asleep at the switch? Reasons to believe Dodd-Frank is perhaps not as effective as people think.. (43:37)
  • Thoughts on cryptocurrencies (50:01).

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The Fed’s Inflation Battle Is Doomed to Fail: Fabian Wintersberger (Szn 4, Ep. 28)

Published October 12, 2022

Fabian Wintersberger joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, inflation, and Fed policy.

Content Highlights

  • The Fed will not succeed at bringing inflation down to 2%. There will be no soft-landing for the economy (2:48);
  • Interest rate hikes will proceed until something breaks in the real economy, forcing the Fed to reverse course (5:04);
  • Bond yields: We haven’t seen the highs yet (8:16);
  • Background on the guest (14:10);
  • The situation in Europe. Central banks have no choice but to follow the Fed higher (16:38);
  • The situation in Wintersberger’s native Austria, which faces an unprecedented winter with dramatically higher energy costs (18:55);
  • Austria has historical ties to Russia, including in its banking sector, where one institution still has business in the country… (23:27).

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Jordi Visser is Optimistic About Inflation, Stocks, Cryptos — And More (Szn 4, Ep 26)

Published September 28, 2022

Jordi Visser, president and chief investment officer at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, joins the podcast to discuss his reasons for optimism during this trying time for global financial markets.

Content Highlights

  • The environment is constructive for risk assets (2:26);
  • Focus has moved from inflation. Investors are too negative (3:50);
  • The Fed is raising interest rates. Inflation is coming down — a lot faster than people think (4:41);
  • What sectors and why? (9:53);
  • No, you don’t need unemployment to increase for inflation to come down (13:22);
  • The bullish case for biotech (15:12);
  • The blockchain will have profound impact on labor markets (19:42);
  • Background on the guest (25:13);
  • Clean energy and how that fits in (29:14);
  • Oil should move higher, but watch out for global trade (36:47);
  • Web 3.0 and cryptocurrencies: here too there are reasons to be bullish (39:48);
  • Beta has started to outperform profitability. A final reason to be optimistic (51:45).

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