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Tag: bonds

This Correction Is Not A Buy Signal: Mike Singleton, Invictus Research (Szn 4, Ep 13)

Published May 2, 2022

Mike Singleton of Invictus Research joins the podcast to discuss why the current sell-off is not a buying opportunity for stocks.

Content Highlights

  • Many contrarians currently believe sentiment is too bearish, meaning the market is due for a run for strong performance. Their conclusion is likely wrong (3:28);
  • Regardless of what investors say in surveys, the key question is whether they have money on the line — and how much (5:50);
  • Right now retail exposure to stocks is at all-time-highs, while institutional investors have cash at low levels (7:27);
  • What about the economic fundamentals, which are mostly in good shape? (10:09);
  • The Fed actually has credibility when it comes to tightening interest rates — and is not just ‘jawboning’ the market (12:58);
  • This is partly because the Fed does a lot more communicating than it has in the past (16:40);
  • Inflation has likely peaked and will start to slow, though not by enough to let the Fed ease rates (24:02);
  • Background on the guest and ‘origin story’ for Invictus Research (26:54);
  • What part of the business cycle are we in now? (33:23);
  • What does that mean for asset classes? (35:34);
  • ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) “has been a terrific place to look for shorts — quick discussion of Cathie Wood and her predicament” (38:03);
  • Bonds will become an opportunity when the Fed ‘breaks something’ and there are indications that may be happening now (40:40);

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Quick Highlights from our YouTube Channel

MoreThis Correction Is Not A Buy Signal: Mike Singleton, Invictus Research (Szn 4, Ep 13)
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No Recession Imminent, Watch for New Highs in (Certain) Stocks: Edward Olanow (Szn 4, Ep. 12)

Published April 25, 2022

Edward Olanow, portfolio manager and director of investment solutions at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, joins the podcast to supply a surprisingly bullish outlook on the economy and on certain segments of the stock market.

Content Highlights

  • Reasons for optimism: Given the Fed and external shocks, GDP remains high and there is still a backlog of orders and millions of unfilled jobs (3:15);
  • The Fed’s talk about 0.75% interest rate hikes is “just jawboning” (5:33);
  • The era of ‘buy & hold’ is over; investors need to be more nimble (8:25);
  • The house view at Weiss is that Nasdaq stocks will have a tougher time than other segments of the market (10:40);
  • The war in Ukraine: in all likelihood risks are localized at present, judging by gold and energy prices (14:25);
  • Background on the guest (18:40);
  • What are dispersion trades and how do they work? (20:34);
  • Why this may be a good time for this strategy — and a ‘turning point’ for alternatives managers in general (26:27);
  • Where all this leaves fixed income and the bond market: Fixed-income is less forward-looking than people think… (29:55);
  • What Olanow and Weiss monitor for inflation (32:31);

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Szn 4, Ep. 1: Barry Knapp on Uncertainty Shocks, Inflation, Economic Growth, and What Else to Expect in 2022

Published January 7, 2022

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his 2022 outlook for the economy and markets. He is broadly optimistic on the former, but less enthusiastic about the latter — at least in the first half of the year — with strong possibility of ‘uncertainty shocks,’ especially around Fed events (sound familiar?) There is also some interesting discussion around interest rates, inflation, and China, among others.

Content Highlights

(Spotify users can link to the start of the section by clicking on the timestamp)

  • A lot has changed in a year, though probably nothing quite as much as the inflation outlook (3:04);
  • Markets and economics should diverge significantly in the first half of the year (4:51);
  • The Federal Reserve is due to embark on a rate-tightening cycle, which should be negative for markets but will be net-neutral, or perhaps even positive for the economy (8:00);
  • Inflation is running hot, but the guest has done some deep research on similar historical epochs and finds the concern less pressing than most (17:20);
  • The key level for inflation is 4% — if the CPI exceeds it consistently there could be trouble. Link to the Fed paper referenced here (21:33);
  • Still, there is a strong possibility for ‘uncertainty shocks’ in the first half of the year (29:52);
  • Finally, China: Reasons to be bearish. Very bearish (34:58).

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MoreSzn 4, Ep. 1: Barry Knapp on Uncertainty Shocks, Inflation, Economic Growth, and What Else to Expect in 2022
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