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Tag: bonds

Recession Fears Are Overblown (Szn 7, Epsd 6)Podcast episode cover art feat Robert Smallbone

Recession Fears Are Overblown (Szn 7, Epsd 6)

Published March 18, 2025

With Robert Smallwood, The Contrarian Catalyst

Robert Smallbone, aka The Contrarian Capitalist, joins the podcast to discuss his view that recession fears are overblown and a fresh “blow-off top” is coming.

This podcast episode was recorded on Thursday, March 13, 2025 and made available to premium subscribers less than 24 hours later! More information on premium subscriptions is available on our Substack.

Content Highlights

  • Bearishness appears to have taken over markets. The S&P 500 just entered a correction. The guest is not buying that narrative (1:16);
  • The uncertainty created by the new US president may be intentional to lower bond yields — and interest rates (4:15);
  • European and UK stock indexes should have more upside ahead (7:21);
  • Background on the guest (12:46);
  • The view on gold and silver (16:11);
  • Crypto discussion (18:40).

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Economic Cycle Still Has Room to Run, Even With Tariffs (Szn 7, Epsd 5)Podcast episode cover art featuring guest Scott Colbert

Economic Cycle Still Has Room to Run, Even With Tariffs (Szn 7, Epsd 5)

Published March 11, 2025

With Scott Colbert, Commerce Trust

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss why the economy can continue to expand even with the onset of Trump tariffs.

This podcast episode was recorded on March 6, 2025 and was made available to premium subscribers exclusively the same day it was recorded. Information on premium membership is avaliable here.

Content Highlights

  • The “Trump tariff barrage” will lead to slower growth, lower economic activity, and higher inflation — in the short term (1:51);
  • Over the medium term however, tariffs should not trigger a recession, nor will they have a lasting impact on prices aka inflation (6:24);
  • Labor markets: Immigration has ground to a halt, but people are aging out of the workforce. Government layoffs notwithstanding, that should result in a wash (10:23);
  • Ultimately the economic cycle is half way through its growth stage, which should run for another four years. However this won’t be great for growth stocks like the ‘magnificent 7’… (15:14);
  • Fixed income is suddenly an attractive asset class and international stocks have tailwinds as well… (18:03);
  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker is suddenly predicting a negative print for first-quarter GDP. There are logical reasons for this (24:23).

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The Looming Iceberg Ahead of the US Economy (Szn 7, Epsd 1)

Published January 28, 2025

Les Rubin, Main Street Economics

Les Rubin of Main Street Economics joins the podcast to discuss his chief concern facing not just markets and economies, but the world at large: US sovereign debt.

This podcast episode was recorded on Wednesday, Jan. 22, 2025 and released to premium subscribers the same day. Information on premium subscriptions, including the vast benefits, are available on our Substack.

Content Highlights

  • The US economy is headed to ‘serious problems’ and the guest’s mission is to educate people to the gravity of the situation (1:47);
  • Debt and fiscal deficits are nothing for the US. But its debt/GDP ratios is reaching a breaking point (2:57);
  • How soon might the breaking point arrive? (5:30);
  • Is there anything from the new Trump administration that might turn the tide? Elon Musk’s DOGE program has promise… (11:02);
  • What about tariffs? (16:22);
  • Background on the guest (20:36);
  • The need for more education: not just financial literacy, but economics (23:55).

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