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Stock Market Expectations Getting Ahead of Economic Realities (Szn 6, Epsd 9)Podcast episode cover image feat Bob Elliott

Stock Market Expectations Getting Ahead of Economic Realities (Szn 6, Epsd 9)

Published June 4, 2024

With Bob Elliott, Unlimited

Bob Elliott of Unlimited rejoins the podcast to discuss his view that stock markets are pricing in a lot of optimism that may not be based on economic realities…

Content Highlights

  • Stock markets are pricing in a lot of optimism. Just how unrealistic is that? (1:19);
  • What is there to indicate the economy could slow this year or even next? (4:34);
  • A recession may be years away rather than months under current conditions. But conditions, as we know, can change quickly… (8:58);
  • There is a precedence to interest rates going up dramatically without it causing an immediate and dramatic entrenchment in economic growth (11:52);
  • Tech stocks might be overvalued but comparisons to the dot-com bubble are unfair and inaccurate — and may preclude a spectacular bust (16:10);
  • Today’s economic expansion is income-driven. Not a result of credit expansion (18:13);
  • What kinds of indicators should investors study to spot a slowdown in this particular type of economic activity? (30:45);
  • Regional banks are for the most part fairly priced at present… (35:50).

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Prepare for a ‘Long Slog’ in Stock Markets as Fed Hikes Continue: Bob Elliott (Szn 4, Ep. 31)

Published November 9, 2022

Bob Elliott, chief investment officer of Unlimited Funds, joins the podcast to discuss his views on the Federal Reserve, inflation, the midterm elections, and why stocks have entered a long ‘slog’ for the foreseeable future.

Content Highlights

  • Investors have been conditioned for recessions to feature a fast decline in equity markets followed by a rapid recovery. This time around those dynamics are different (3:44);
  • There is no chance of a ‘Fed pivot’ coming anytime soon (7:58);
  • What about infighting at the Fed and within the FOMC? (11:03);
  • Yes, you need unemployment to increase for there to be any progress with inflation. Higher prices are no longer due to supply chain issues (13:57);
  • The Fed will raise either 50bps or 75bps at its next meeting and rates could easily go up to 6% (21:22);
  • Background on the guest and his ETF, the Unlimited HFND Multi Strategy Return Tracker ETF. Stock ticker: HFND (26:19);
  • The growing disconnect between hedge fund positioning and retail investors: Hedge funds are short bonds, long commodities, bullish gold, and are sitting on a bunch of cash… (36:21);
  • The Fed’s target rate for inflation is 2%, but that could change. That would bring a myriad of issues… (38:24);
  • It’s hard to get bullish about longterm bonds: right now and for the foreseeable future (40:54);
  • Investors continue to look for reasons that the economy is slowing and the Fed needs to reverse course. There is virtually no evidence of this happening (42:44);
  • The midterm elections are likely to lead to a split government. This brings tail risks that few people are talking about (44:50).

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MorePrepare for a ‘Long Slog’ in Stock Markets as Fed Hikes Continue: Bob Elliott (Szn 4, Ep. 31)
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