May 2020 – Page 2 – The Contrarian Investor Podcast

Season 2, Episode 15: Healthcare, Tech Stocks May Not Be As Defensive As Believed

Published May 13, 2020

With Chris Brown of Aristides Capital

Christopher Brown of Aristides Capital joins the podcast to discuss his investment strategy, which has produced positive returns every calendar year since 2008.

Update: This podcast episode has been transcribed! Read it here.

In Brown’s view, healthcare and information technology stocks should not be treated as defensive investments that will protect portfolios in times of stress — especially after their recent run-up. There are reasons many companies in this sector are overvalued and could see their shares drop as the economy begins to see further difficulties from coronavirus.

Aristides Capital has an active short book, which framed most of the second half of the conversation.

Content Segments:

Why investors’ thinking about defensive stocks may be misguided (4:49)
Growth stocks’ recent performance is reminiscent of the late-1990s tech bubble (7:05)
The concerns with healthcare stocks (11:45)
Background on the guest (15:07)
Some of the red flags short sellers look for and why the “big picture” is often more pertinent (20:22)
Inovio Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: INO) discussion (22:52)
CytoDyn Inc. (OTC: CYDY) discussion (25:44)
Vuzix Corp. (NASDAQ: VUZI) discussion (28:37)
Accelerate Diagnostics (NASDAQ: AXDX) discussion (30:59)
Insider purchases are not always a bullish indicator (35:02)
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) discussion, at the guest’s suggestion (host didn’t want to go there originally) and why it could be an indicator for future market direction (36:17)
Reasons to be bearish on markets and the economy (39:17)
How to protect your portfolio against inflation (42:13)

Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

For more information on the guest:

Website: AristidesCapital.com
Twitter: @MidwestHedgie

Not intended as investment advice.

Season 2, Episode 12, Transcribed: The Next Stage of the ‘Market Melt-Up’ With David Hunter

Published May 6, 2020

Nathaniel E. Baker 0:36
David Hunter, Chief macro strategist at contrarian macro advisors. You were on the show last summer in August if memory serves, and you told listeners about your idea that there would be a dramatic melt up that would be caused by central bank liquidity, injections and other measures. And anybody who’s been paying attention to markets in the last couple of weeks, could reasonably point out that this is exactly what’s happened here with the Fed, and other central banks, mainly the Fed, stepping in to combat the coronavirus impact, and unleashing all kinds of liquidity. So, I guess that would be the first question for you is where we stand with this. And if this is indeed the start of this melt up?

David Hunter 1:37
Sure. Yeah, I think this is definitely the start of what I think will eventually become a parabolic melt up into a secular top. And in all honesty, when we talked last, I guess, late August, I didn’t anticipate the coronavirus by any means and didn’t anticipate that we’d get down under 2200 on the S&P, I thought we might in fact in January, February, March. I was talking about January, February, early March, I was talking about a correction back to 3000, maybe 2900. But I certainly didn’t see the the cascade that we we got. So, you know, the coronavirus certainly affected the path. But my target of 4000 plus on the S&P, which I had last summer is still my target today. We had another leg down. It took us down to a deeper bottom. But I think it didn’t change the fact that we are going to have this final melt up into a secular top, a top that I expect to be the high watermark for decades to come.

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Season 2, Episode 14: The Anti-Quant Quant, Beating Indexes With Three ETFs

Published May 6, 2020

With Chad Glauser, Alpine Quantitative Management

Chad Glauser of Denver-based Alpine Quantitative Management joins the podcast to discuss his fund’s strategy of using just three ETFs as a way to manage risk, gauge volatility, and produce returns.

The three ETFs track short-term Treasuries, long-term bonds, and the S&P 500. Alpine has been actively trading the strategy since late 2017 after an incubation period of about two years. The approach has worked, with the fund beating the hedge fund index for 22 straight months (and counting).

Content:
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment in question)

About the strategy: quick background and using volatility as an indicator (1:10)
The “real-world example” of what happened in January and February, and how the fund adopted (2:42)
How often, and quickly, the portfolio adjusts and why it is 100% allocated at all times (4:39)
The current view of markets (5:46)
Why Alpine views itself as the “anti-quant” quant (9:04)
Background on Chad Glauser (12:35)
How to get in touch (20:04)

Quick Video Highlight via Our YouTube Channel