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Category: Season 2

Season 2, Episode 16: Chinese Economic Reforms Are Already a Thing of the Past, With Dexter Roberts

Published May 20, 2020

The author of “The Myth of Chinese Capitalism” discusses the ramifications of his thesis

Dexter Roberts joins the podcast to discuss his book “The Myth of Chinese Capitalism.”

In Roberts’ view, economic reforms have already been curtailed under current political leadership. China’s middle class, which has grown almost exponentially in recent decades, remains limited mostly to large coastal cities. The rural countryside, which still represents half the country’s population, remains well below the middle class — and is stuck there, in part due to outdated demographic policies.

The options for Chinese policymakers are limited. They have so far not managed to spread the wealth effects of their “pivot” to a services-based economy, and may have even exacerbated the problem. This all has wide-ranging consequences: for China, for western companies, and for the world.

Content Segments:

  • The first myth: capitalism as short hand for economic reforms (5:39)
  • The second key myth: the middle class will inexorably continue to grow larger (6:35)
  • The global supply-chain diversification, started several years ago and exacerbated by COVID-19, is effectively ending China’s “factory to the world” model (9:21)
  • Authorities’ options are very limited (10:45)
  • Where does this leave Chinese consumers? The days of western companies expanding sales through the growth of China’s middle class are gone (13:10)
  • Background on the gust (20:15)
  • What might the future of China hold? (25:09) The possibility of social unrest (27:14)
  • Brief discussion of Hong Kong: “Don’t think that the protests are over.” (30:22)

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Season 2, Episode 15: Healthcare, Tech Stocks May Not Be As Defensive As Believed

Published May 13, 2020

With Chris Brown of Aristides Capital

Christopher Brown of Aristides Capital joins the podcast to discuss his investment strategy, which has produced positive returns every calendar year since 2008.

Update: This podcast episode has been transcribed! Read it here.

In Brown’s view, healthcare and information technology stocks should not be treated as defensive investments that will protect portfolios in times of stress — especially after their recent run-up. There are reasons many companies in this sector are overvalued and could see their shares drop as the economy begins to see further difficulties from coronavirus.

Aristides Capital has an active short book, which framed most of the second half of the conversation.  

Content Segments: 

  • Why investors’ thinking about defensive stocks may be misguided (4:49)
  • Growth stocks’ recent performance is reminiscent of the late-1990s tech bubble (7:05)
  • The concerns with healthcare stocks (11:45)
  • Background on the guest (15:07)
  • Some of the red flags short sellers look for and why the “big picture” is often more pertinent (20:22)
  • Inovio Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: INO) discussion (22:52)
  • CytoDyn Inc. (OTC: CYDY) discussion (25:44)
  • Vuzix Corp. (NASDAQ: VUZI) discussion (28:37)
  • Accelerate Diagnostics (NASDAQ: AXDX) discussion (30:59)
  • Insider purchases are not always a bullish indicator (35:02)
  • Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) discussion, at the guest’s suggestion (host didn’t want to go there originally) and why it could be an indicator for future market direction (36:17)
  • Reasons to be bearish on markets and the economy (39:17)
  • How to protect your portfolio against inflation (42:13)

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Not intended as investment advice.

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Season 2, Episode 14: The Anti-Quant Quant, Beating Indexes With Three ETFs

Published May 6, 2020

With Chad Glauser, Alpine Quantitative Management

Chad Glauser of Denver-based Alpine Quantitative Management joins the podcast to discuss his fund’s strategy of using just three ETFs as a way to manage risk, gauge volatility, and produce returns.

The three ETFs track short-term Treasuries, long-term bonds, and the S&P 500. Alpine has been actively trading the strategy since late 2017 after an incubation period of about two years. The approach has worked, with the fund beating the hedge fund index for 22 straight months (and counting).

Content:
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment in question)

  • About the strategy: quick background and using volatility as an indicator (1:10)
  • The “real-world example” of what happened in January and February, and how the fund adopted (2:42)
  • How often, and quickly, the portfolio adjusts and why it is 100% allocated at all times (4:39)
  • The current view of markets (5:46)
  • Why Alpine views itself as the “anti-quant” quant (9:04)
  • Background on Chad Glauser (12:35)
  • How to get in touch (20:04)

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Not intended as investment advice.

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