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Category: Season 2

Season 2, Episode 13: Buy Individual Stocks or Bonds, Not ETFs

Published April 29, 2020

With Maya Joelson, Metapoint Advisors

Maya Joelson, founder and president of Metapoint Advisors, joins the podcast to discuss her view of exchange-traded funds.

These instruments are seen as efficient and cheap ways for investors, especially retail investors, to gain access to various asset classes. But this is misguided, especially when it comes to ETFs tracking bond markets. Even stock ETFs aren’t always a good idea. Investors are better served picking individual securities themselves (or hiring somebody to do it for them).

Content segments (with timestamp):

  • A short history on the rise of ETFs in the U.S. (2:10)
  • Why bond ETFs don’t make as much sense as equity ETFs (6:49)
  • How long before investors get wise to this? (10:41)
  • What about stock ETFs, how efficient are they? (15:20)
  • Background on the guest (20:24)
  • “Better Safe Than SARS-y”: Looking back on the call to derisk portfolios in early February and where we are now (25:43) 
  • Buy stocks that should do well in this environment: consumer staples, healthcare, Kraft Heinz, Chewy (29:53)

Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

For more information on the guest:

Not intended as investment advice.

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Season 2, Episode 12: Market ‘Melt Up’ Will Continue Until Late Summer Before Onset of ‘Deflationary Bust’

Published April 14, 2020

With David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors

David Hunter, chief macro strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors, has for some time predicted a final “melt up” stage of the market cycle before markets crash.

This stage is now underway as markets recover from an initial sell-off caused by the coronavirus (which Hunter admits he did not and could not have predicted).

What comes next is a “secular top that I expect to be the high-water mark for decades to come,” he says. After markets peak around late summer, a “global deflationary bust” will ensue, with as much as 80% downside for equities.

Prefer to read the transcript of this talk? Become a premium subscriber to get access. Sign up now with a special discount that will expire soon.

Content: 

  • Target of 4,000 for the S&P as part of “the final melt up” (2:23)
  • The downside target. Forget the “retest narrative” in the short term (10:39). Markets should drop by 80% from the top (11:58)
  • Unprecedented leverage doesn’t leave policymakers much time (14:09)
  • Background on David: 47 years in financial markets (18:46)
  • The current crisis in historical context (26:35)
  • Deflation allows for liquidity injections. Until it creates inflation (32:01)
  • Discussing the potential political and social fallout from the coming economic crisis (36:12)
  • How deflation will eventually turn to inflation (40:20)
  • Discussion of the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status (45:56)
  • Bullish outlook for gold and silver (51:37)

Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

For more information on the guest:

Not intended as investment advice.

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Season 2, Episode 11: Bargain Hunting in Frontier Markets, With Hedi Ben Mlouka of FIM Partners

Published April 7, 2020

Frontier markets are at greater risk of coronavirus fallout, but there are opportunities

Hedi Ben Mlouka joins the podcast to discuss his views of frontier markets in light of the coronavirus crisis.

Ben Mlouka has been investing in frontier markets for more than a decade as CIO and CEO of Dubai-based FIM Partners. He sees the asset class in general as being at greater risk of being impacted by fallout from the COVID-19 epidemic. The political risks are particularly vexxing.

Content segments timestamp:

  • Is this a good time to be investing in frontier markets? (6:03)
  • The first part of the equation: Frontier markets are less prepared for the coronavirus than developed markets (7:05)
  • The impact will be larger from a healthcare perspective while the policy response can be expected to be weaker, especially in fragile economies (9:56)
  • The crisis will expose the “downside of globalization,” precluding a “V-shaped” recovery (11:30)
  • Where are the opportunities? Oil importers like Pakistan and Egypt can benefit (15:26)
  • Speaking oil, forget about the demand shock for now. Oil prices should recover to $50 or $60 per barrel (18:57)
  • Beyond the macro picture, industries with access to capital are preferred. Avoid travel, hospitality, banks. (21:07)
  • Healthcare, education, retail, and consumer discretionary companies should recover over the long term (23:56)
  • Political risk is a major concern for many countries in frontier markets. Who’s most vulnerable? (31:09)

Highlights From Our YouTube Channel

More information on the guest:

Not intended as investment advice.

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