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Category: Season 2

Season 2, Episode 28: Economic Growth Prospects Are Better Than Advertised

Published September 23, 2020

Alex Chausovsky of ITR Economics discusses the metrics pointing to continued recovery from COVID

Alex Chausovsky of ITR Economics joins the podcast to discuss his view that economic recovery in the U.S. is on firmer footing than widely believed.

Content

  • Downside risks do exist. Flu season is approaching but the data is painting a more encouraging picture (3:37);
  • The top leading indicators are predicting a business cycle rise in 2021, led by the consumer (6:17);
  • Employment is a lagging indicator. Other metrics are more telling about the economy’s future prospects (9:53);
  • The election and how that might impact things (11:50);
  • Background on the guest (18:31);
  • The prospects for commercial real estate. Is the office doomed? (30:34)
  • Current opportunities: Look to the defense sector and export-intensive industries in the U.S. (34:44);
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Season 2, Episode 27: The ‘Weird Portfolio’ With Value Stock Geek

Published September 16, 2020

Adding gold and real estate exposure to the traditional portfolio construction mix.

Value Stock Geek, well known on the Twittersphere as @ValueStockGeek, joins the podcast to discuss his concept of the “weird portfolio.”

This portfolio allocates to gold and real estate as well as stocks and Treasuries.

The guest also revisits his prediction from his first visit to the podcast last year, when he said retail stocks were undervalued.

The paper explaining this concept in more detail can be read in its entirety here.

 

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Season 2, Episode 26: John Kay on Radical Uncertainty

Published September 2, 2020

COVID-19 and the pendelum of probabilistic reasoning

University of Oxford economist John Kay joins the podcast to discuss his recent book, “Radical Uncertainty” and its lessons for financial markets in the age of COVID-19.

Content:

  • The premise for the book: Frank Knight, Milton Friedman and the pendelum of probabilistic reasoning (1:20);
  • It is “almost impossible to overstate” the influence of efficient market reasoning on economic and financial market models (4:02);
  • Radical uncertainty: There is a great deal of information that cannot be realistically thought about probabilistically. Enter COVID-19 (8:20);
  • What’s an investor to do with this information? (10:15);
  • Financial modeling has conflated risk, uncertainty, and volatility. They aren’t the same thing (12:53);
  • Time horizons and the importance of imagination. Humans are natural story tellers. This is more important than pure maths (20:24);
  • Where does real estate fit? (25:25);
  • Background on the guest (30:28);
  • What is the market getting wrong right now? (34:37);
  • Short discussion of the U.S. election (41:04).
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