recession – Page 25 – The Contrarian Investor Podcast

Season 2, Episode 3: News Headlines Are a ‘Subtle Fallacy’ Confounding Investors

Published January 29, 2020

Nicholas Reece of Merk Research says news has no real impact on the global economy or markets

January 2020 has been an eventful month. Geopolitical events and other exogenous factors have roiled global financial markets. In the end, they may not matter all that much where the trajectory of the global economy is concerned. In fact, they may not matter at all.

Nicholas Reece of Merk Research shares his thesis that there is a “subtle fallacy” that events in the news are important to the global economy and financial markets. This is due to evolutionary biography, behavioral biases, and the nature of the news business in the digital age.

In a wide-ranging conversation, Reece tells listeners how to cut through the noise to identify data that has real economic repercussions. One conclusion is that in 2020 (at least so far) to be a contrarian means being optimistic.

Content:

The “subtle fallacy” of news (1:32)
Humankind’s innate negativity bias (2:43)
So what news is relevant to the economy and to markets? (4:09)
Discerning the signal from the noise for investors (5:50)
Economic damage from the coronavirus (7:53)
“Unknown unknowns” (9:32)
Nick Reece’s “origin story” as an investor (12:41)
The changing public perception of the Federal Reserve (20:30)
Being positive is contrarian (26:21)
A short discourse on political commentary (27:25)
Favorite economic indicators that can supply contrarian signals (30:19)

For more information about Nick Reece and Merk Research, visit their website.

Season 1, Episode 24: Investors’ Worsening Mood is a Bullish Indicator with Nick From Demonetized Blog

Published November 20, 2019

Counterintuitively, risk assets should benefit from deteriorating sentiments

The collective mood and risk appetite of investors may be turning more cautious, but this makes for a more optimistic outlook for risk assets. The author of the Demonetized Blog (and corresponding Twitter account) joins the podcast to discuss this concept and what it means for the economy and markets going forward.

Content:

Investor surveys as contrarian indicators (2:40) and the “basic principle” that broader conservative positioning makes for bullishness (5:13)
Nick’s “origin story” as an investor (13:36)
Timing is everything. How much longer does this bull market have to run? (17:45)
Interest rates should stay low indefinitely (20:37) and the economy is not facing an imminent recession (22:00)
Prospects of a new president in the U.S. (24:12)
What this all means for asset allocation (26:05) and why investors should keep wary of inflation (28:25)

Not intended as investment advice.

Season 1, Episode 17: The Coming ‘Melt Up’ in Markets, With David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors

Published September 4, 2019

The market cycle has one final upleg, which will be followed by a historic crash

David Hunter, Chief Macro Strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors, discusses the current state of the economic cycle and why risk assets have a final upleg left before the onset of the bear market.

Content:
The Federal Reserve is behind the curve of the economy (2:00), the coming bust (5:00), predictions for bond prices (8:15), the final “melt up” and why it will be “parabolic” (12:29), echoes of 1982 (16:50), the 2020 bear market (19:34) and recovery, which will bring the first inflationary cycle since the 1970s (21:21), favorite places to be in terms of investments (26:45), $10 oil (30:00)