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Stocks, Bonds to Rally in Q4: David Hunter (Szn 5, Episode 25)David Hunter Szn 5 Episode 25 cover iamge

Stocks, Bonds to Rally in Q4: David Hunter (Szn 5, Episode 25)

Published October 16, 2023

A short actionable highlights reel from this podcast was released to premium subscribers last Thursday, Oct. 12 — the same day it was recorded. The full episode and transcript were made available to premium subscribers the following day. Become a premium subscriber by signing up on our Substack or Supercast.

David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, Fed, stocks, and bonds.

Not investment advice.

Content Highlights

  • Views on the bond market (1:31);
  • The Federal Reserve will likely pause again at its next meeting, on Nov. 1 (6:41);
  • Views on stocks (11:30);
  • Once consensus emerges that the Fed is ‘done’ it will remove a major wall of worry and headwind the magnitude of which few are anticipating… (16:14);
  • Targets for S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Industrials, 10-year yields… (21:21);
  • How the ‘bust’ scenario will play out (27:02),

To contact David Hunter and find out about subscribing to his newsletter, you need to send him a direct message on Twitter. His handle is @DaveHContrarian. The host will not forward your messages.

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Contrarian Investing Primer With Phil Pecsok, Anacapa Advisors (Szn 5, Epsd 24)Podcast episode cover art: Phil Pecsok

Contrarian Investing Primer With Phil Pecsok, Anacapa Advisors (Szn 5, Epsd 24)

Published September 20, 2023

Phil Pecsok, founder of Anacapa Advisors, joins the podcast to supply a primer on contrarian investing: What it is, what catalysts to look for, and some valuable lessons from his 30-year career on Wall Street.

Content Highlights

  • The guest provides his views of contrarian investing and how he uses it (1:27);
  • Examples of blaring contrarian signals from past cycles (9:00);
  • The Fed is likely to stay hawkish (13:14);
  • The ‘Rule of 3’ in contrarian investing as illustrated in a story from early in the guest’s career (16:37);
  • His views on cryptos (24:13);
  • Background on the guest (30:01);
  • Sports betting is an efficient way to lose money, unless you’re running the book. But sometimes there are sometimes contrarian opportunities (37:46);
  • What keeps the guest up at night? Nothing in particular, though stocks are probably overbought even after the recent sell-off (45:17).

For more on the guest and his firm, visit the website AnacapaAdvisors.com.

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Hard Landing for the US Economy, Mild Recession to Spare Emerging Markets (Szn 5, Epsd 23)Episode 23 coverart feat Ayesha Tariq

Hard Landing for the US Economy, Mild Recession to Spare Emerging Markets (Szn 5, Epsd 23)

Published September 4, 2023

With Ayesha Tariq, MacroVisor

This podcast episode was recorded on Aug. 29 with a ‘highlight’ clip of the most actionable insights released to premium subscribers that same day. Premium subscribers then received the full episode — without ads or interruptions — the following day, on Aug. 30.

Ayesha Tariq, co-founder of MacroVisor, rejoins the podcast to discuss why she is expecting a hard landing for the US economy along with other contrarian views she has about the Federal Reserve and global financial markets.

Content Highlights

  • The ‘soft landing’ scenario has effectively become the base case. Why that’s wrong (1:32);
  • Unlike many (most?) recessions, this one will not be preceded by a Fed-induced credit event. For this reason, it will be milder (4:44);
  • The Federal Reserve is likely to hike at its next meeting on Sept. 20. That will be its last hike this cycle (8:53);
  • The US downturn will not necessarily lead to a global recession (12:58);
  • The outlook for commodities, specifically copper, is bullish despite the bearish economic outlook (18:48);
  • Rate hikes might be off the table, but quantitative tightening could still be incoming in 2024 (23:45);
  • New segment: Listener questions. Whoever’s questions are read wins a free Contrarian mug. First up: what to make of Nvidia and AI (26:36);
  • Next listener question: what to look for in bank earnings? (31:42);
  • One area of the stock market where the guest is particularly bullish (36:35).

For more about the guest, visit her website MacroVisor.com or follow her on Twitter/X.

Not investment advice.

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