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Category: Blog

Russia Bond Default, Crypto Fund Blow-Up No Concern to Markets (Yet)

Published June 27, 2022

The following is an amended form of the Daily Contrarian briefing from June 27. This briefing and accompanying podcast are released to premium subscribers each market day morning by 0700. To subscribe, visit our Substack.

Over the weekend we received a couple of troublesome headlines about a Russian bond default and potentially the blow-up of a crypto hedge fund. 

Markets appear to have shrugged this off, moving higher in the pre-market. While this bounce faded at the open, major indexes are only down a few basis points at the time of this writing (0940 EDT on Monday). Cryptos are down a bit, with bitcoin dropping by about 2% to dip below $21,000.

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Powell Testimony: What to Look For

Published June 22, 2022

The following is an amended form of the Daily Contrarian briefing from June 22. This briefing and accompanying podcast are released to premium subscribers each market day morning by 0700. To subscribe, visit our Substack.

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell starts two days of testimony in Washington, D.C. today. Powell addresses the Joint Economic Committee and take questions from the politicos. Don’t expect anything in the way of nuanced or educated questions from these folks. They’ll all be trying to score political points for the cameras.

Meme of Fed chair Jerome Powell: "There are no guarantees in life"

Still, some details may emerge regardless. Investors will be looking for any indication for when the Fed may stop its interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening. Specifically they’ll be looking for what Powell says the Fed will consider victory over inflationary pressures.

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Recession Realities Set In as Stocks Drop

Published June 17, 2022

The following is an amended form of the Daily Contrarian briefing from June 17. This briefing and accompanying podcast are released to premium subscribers each market day morning by 0700. To subscribe, visit our Substack.

Talk of recession has emerged in force this week after the Fed raised rates by 0.75% and stocks sold off. Google Trends shows keyword searches for ‘recession’ at their highest level since the onset of the pandemic.

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