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Tag: geopolitics

Szn 4, Ep. 2: The Nascent Sino-U.S. Financial Cold War, with James Fok

Published January 18, 2022

James Fok joins the podcast to discuss his book ‘Financial Cold War: A View of Sino-US Relations from the Financial Markets’. In Fok’s view, the fates of China and the U.S. are highly intertwined, and neither country’s leaders want the conflict to escalate — but that could easily change.

Content Highlights

  • How the financial cold war is defined, some of the ways it is already impacting society and economics, and the risks of greater conflicts (3:06);
  • Is military conflict between the U.S. and China inevitable? (4:49);
  • The fates of the two countries are highly intertwined but the U.S. dollar and global monetary system have exacerbated imbalances (7:46);
  • Why the belief that the USD’s global role is good for the U.S. is a fallacy (11:02);
  • The world needs to become less USD-denominated if the financial Cold War is going to be resolved. There is precedence for this (18:00);
  • Background on the guest (30:00);
  • The state of China’s economy and where it’s headed (33:44);
  • China’s economic problems are clear for all to see, but the social implications are probably being significantly underestimated (36:49).
MoreSzn 4, Ep. 2: The Nascent Sino-U.S. Financial Cold War, with James Fok
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Szn 3, Episode 27: Forget Inflation — Deflationary Forces Are the More Vexing Issue

Published November 16, 2021

Content Highlights

  • The market is pricing in a series of interest rate hikes for the coming 24 months. But the Fed has backed off of a tightening schedule before (2:18);
  • Bonds have been selling off, but investors will find themselves on the wrong side of this trade when Fed backs off of tapering (4:07);

  • Inflation is a supply-side problem that the Fed doesn’t have control of. Markets are too fragile to handle rate hikes (5:06);The latest FOMC meeting where tapering was announced “was probably the most dovish taper you could come up with” (9:20);

  • Deflationary forces, starting with China, are a major issue the market is overlooking. This despite the best (non-publicized) efforts by the Chinese government (10:49);

  • It’s not just China though; demographics and debt are part of the longer-term trend toward deflation (19:19);

  • Background on the guest (22:33);

  • What about potential headwinds, from China or elsewhere? (24:58);

  • Unwinding Evergrande: Where is the exposure? (29:05);

  • How much longer can the Fed taper before their hand is forced to back off? (31:17);

  • What indicators should investors keep an eye on to monitor this situation? (34:35).

MoreSzn 3, Episode 27: Forget Inflation — Deflationary Forces Are the More Vexing Issue
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Season 3, Episode 24: The Lessons From Iceland’s Financial Collapse, From One Who Was There

Published October 20, 2021

With Jared Bibler, Author of ‘Iceland’s Secret’

Jared Bibler joins the podcast to discuss his book ‘Iceland’s Secret’ and his experience living through that country’s financial collapse in 2008.

It was a very dark period in Iceland’s history, with individuals losing homes and savings and not being able to buy food. The author experienced this first-hand, initially as an asset manager and later working for regulators seeking to bring the responsible parties to justice.

The crisis in Iceland shocked the world but was quickly overshadowed by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the U.S. Today it is largely forgotten outside of Iceland. But the author says his experience holds many lessons for the present day.

If nothing else, his experience holds lessons for those interested in hedging against a total collapse of capital markets and civil society.

MoreSeason 3, Episode 24: The Lessons From Iceland’s Financial Collapse, From One Who Was There
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