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Risks Point to Downside in 2024 (Szn 5, Epsd 29)Contrarian Investor Podcast Season 5, Episode 29 feat Kyrill Asatur, Centerfin

Risks Point to Downside in 2024 (Szn 5, Epsd 29)

Published December 27, 2023

With Kyrill Asatur, Centerfin

This podcast episode was recorded Dec. 20, 2023 and made available exclusively — without ads or announcements — for premium subscribers that same day. This is just one of the benefits of becoming a premium subscriber. The others are detailed on our Supercast or Substack pages.

Kyrill Asatur, co-founder and CEO of Centerfin, re-joins the podcast to discuss his views going into 2024 and the likelihood there won’t be a ‘soft landing’ for the economy next year.

Content Highlights

  • Consensus estimates for 2024 are going to be wrong, just like they were for this year and every year before it (2:12);
  • Coming in to this year the banking sector was a concern, though as it turned out for the wrong reasons (4:39);
  • The catalyst for the reversal this fall and the new, dovish Fed (7:26);
  • The contrarian call is that they’re won’t be a soft landing — or a stock market crash (11:44);
  • Possible explanation for the ‘Fed pivot’ (16:48);
  • How the guest is allocating assets going into 2024 (23:56);
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) discussion (29:02).

More on the Guest

This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing here is intended as investment advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions.

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Opportunities in Emerging, Frontier Markets (Szn 5, Episode 27)Kevin Carter, EMQQ Global podcast coverart

Opportunities in Emerging, Frontier Markets (Szn 5, Episode 27)

Published November 21, 2023

Featuring Kevin T. Carter, EMQQ Global

Kevin T. Carter, founder and chief investment officer of EMQQ Global, joins the podcast to discuss opportunities in emerging and frontier market stocks. His first lesson: don’t bother with the indexes. The real opportunities are to be found in individual stocks.

Content Highlights

  • The first issue with emerging market investing is the index. These do not accurately reflect the real opportunities (1:19);
  • Individual stocks, especially of technology companies, have performed far better than the underlying index (6:25);
  • There are three mega-trends that point to emerging markets growth over the long term (8:03);
  • South America’s E-commerce giant is not in any EM index. Neither is Brazilian digital bank Nu Holdings (15:14);
  • A broad discussion of China, where things are not always as they appear in the western media… (19:22);
  • Right now all eyes are on India. The story there is still in the early innings, but unfortunately options are limited for investors limited to US exchanges… (42:13);
  • Other markets in South Asia also offer compelling opportunities. Especially Bangladesh (48:58).

More Information on the Guest

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Tech Is Not Dead, Though It Is Certainly Changing: Kevin Philip (Szn 5, Ep 8)

Published March 28, 2023

Kevin Philip of Bel Air Investment Advisors joins the podcast to discuss why he’s still bullish about technology despite seismic changes in that industry, his less enthusiastic take on cryptocurrencies, and other issues he’s watching — be they in the banking sector or geopolitically.

Content Highlights

  • Tech is not dreck, nor is it dead. Technological advances are at the heart of US economic growth. Demand for digital goods may have gotten ahead of its skis during Covid. It will return (1:40);
  • Chances for an interest cut by year-end have increased with the bank failures (4:30);
  • The employment situation is changing in the technology industry as it comes to terms with delicate circumstances around business models and the concept of value in general (6:01);
  • The bank failures may create opportunities for venture capital in two areas: secondary funds and a new vintage of funds that should generate outsize returns in the future (9:20);
  • Tech stocks have been beaten down, but lower interest rates can sustain earnings multiples. There are risks, however… (11:23);
  • Some of the threats and opportunities wrought by Chat GPT and AI (14:11);
  • When it comes to cryptocurrencies, the guest is not a major fan — and this was recorded before Binance (18:52);
  • Silicon Valley Bank was poorly managed and had a bad business model. It deserved to fail (21:52);
  • As for Credit Suisse, the Swiss bank appears to have been undone by a crisis of confidence (23:44);
  • Background on the guest (27:50);
  • Bel Air’s clientele is mostly about wealth protection rather than growth. What are some tried and true methods for accomplishing this? (32:25);
  • China discussion and why there’s no need to invest internationally (34:48);
  • Through it all, there are reasons for optimism (43:31).

Not investment advice.

For more information on the guest, visit the Bel Air Investment Advisors website.

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