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Tag: energy

No Recession Imminent, Watch for New Highs in (Certain) Stocks: Edward Olanow (Szn 4, Ep. 12)

Published April 25, 2022

Edward Olanow, portfolio manager and director of investment solutions at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, joins the podcast to supply a surprisingly bullish outlook on the economy and on certain segments of the stock market.

Content Highlights

  • Reasons for optimism: Given the Fed and external shocks, GDP remains high and there is still a backlog of orders and millions of unfilled jobs (3:15);
  • The Fed’s talk about 0.75% interest rate hikes is “just jawboning” (5:33);
  • The era of ‘buy & hold’ is over; investors need to be more nimble (8:25);
  • The house view at Weiss is that Nasdaq stocks will have a tougher time than other segments of the market (10:40);
  • The war in Ukraine: in all likelihood risks are localized at present, judging by gold and energy prices (14:25);
  • Background on the guest (18:40);
  • What are dispersion trades and how do they work? (20:34);
  • Why this may be a good time for this strategy — and a ‘turning point’ for alternatives managers in general (26:27);
  • Where all this leaves fixed income and the bond market: Fixed-income is less forward-looking than people think… (29:55);
  • What Olanow and Weiss monitor for inflation (32:31);

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Video Highlights

MoreNo Recession Imminent, Watch for New Highs in (Certain) Stocks: Edward Olanow (Szn 4, Ep. 12)
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The Fallacy of Renewable Energy: Leigh Goehring, Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates (Szn 4, Ep 10)

Published April 6, 2022

Leigh Goehring, managing partner of Goehring & Rozencwajg, joins the podcast to discuss his view that most renewable energies are ineffective at reducing carbon output and pointless as investments.

Content Highlights

  • The consensus opinion is that renewable energy will solve many of the problems of CO2 production and energy needs. This is false (3:12);
  • The “terrible energy efficiency” associated with renewables will make the world poorer (5:00);
  • What is the problem with solar and wind and why are they so inefficient? (7:20);
  • It’s no coincidence that the energy crisis started in Germany, which is now forced to import coal (12:20);
  • Vaclav Smil and the premise that there has never been a new technology with inferior energy efficiency that displaced the old technology (13:59);
  • The ulterior motives behind China’s green energy push (18:33);
  • The “great hope” for a Moore’s Law of wind mills and solar panels is a fallacy. Input prices have declined because energy prices have (21:05);
  • Where does that leave electric cars? (25:00);
  • Background on the guest (33:42);
  • What parts of the energy industry are better targets for investment right now? Look to uranium for starters, “the perfect solution to our problems” (37:17);
  • Copper is “the quintessential green metal” also facing a supply/demand imbalance. Also agricultural commodities, grains, fertilizers, nitrogen, and potash (41:26);
  • Mosaic (MOS) is one of the world’s largest phosphate and potash producers, and a stock the guest is particularly bullish on — it trades at just 5x earnings versus 25x at the peak (47:07);
  • An agricultural crisis could soon be upon us, leading to hoarding of supplies (49:58).

More Information About the Guest

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MoreThe Fallacy of Renewable Energy: Leigh Goehring, Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates (Szn 4, Ep 10)
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Szn 4, Ep 6: The ‘Bad Times Are Already Here,’ With Acquirers Funds’ Tobias Carlisle

Published March 2, 2022

Tobias Carlisle of Acquirers Funds rejoins the podcast to discuss the stock market’s latest dramatic reversal, this time over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and why investors may be a bit too bullish at present…

Content Highlights

  • How to take the huge reversal last week with Russia-Ukraine? (3:11)
  • Every war starts with “the boys will be home by Christmas,” but most tend to drag on longer than anticipated. Sometimes a lot longer… (5:13);
  • Growth stocks have been in correction territory for some time. Are they in a bear market? Probably… (8:52);
  • The interest rate cycle has not started tightening but inflation has the Fed caught between a rock and a hard place (15:53);
  • Energy and energy stocks are still cheap. Then there are defense contractors. Lockheed Martin (LMT) has benefited from Russia-Ukraine and Carlisle is a holder… (21:25);
  • Facebook aka Meta (FB) is also cheap (23:20);
  • Non-fungible tokens, or NFTs: Dead as Disco (30:12);
  • The aim of investing is to survive the bad times and they are “probably here” (37:18).

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MoreSzn 4, Ep 6: The ‘Bad Times Are Already Here,’ With Acquirers Funds’ Tobias Carlisle
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