economy – Page 38 – The Contrarian Investor Podcast

Season 2, Episode 28: Economic Growth Prospects Are Better Than Advertised

Published September 23, 2020

Alex Chausovsky of ITR Economics discusses the metrics pointing to continued recovery from COVID

Alex Chausovsky of ITR Economics joins the podcast to discuss his view that economic recovery in the U.S. is on firmer footing than widely believed.

Content

Downside risks do exist. Flu season is approaching but the data is painting a more encouraging picture (3:37);
The top leading indicators are predicting a business cycle rise in 2021, led by the consumer (6:17);
Employment is a lagging indicator. Other metrics are more telling about the economy’s future prospects (9:53);
The election and how that might impact things (11:50);
Background on the guest (18:31);
The prospects for commercial real estate. Is the office doomed? (30:34)
Current opportunities: Look to the defense sector and export-intensive industries in the U.S. (34:44);

Season 2, Episode 26: John Kay on Radical Uncertainty

Published September 2, 2020

COVID-19 and the pendelum of probabilistic reasoning

University of Oxford economist John Kay joins the podcast to discuss his recent book, “Radical Uncertainty” and its lessons for financial markets in the age of COVID-19.

Content:

The premise for the book: Frank Knight, Milton Friedman and the pendelum of probabilistic reasoning (1:20);
It is “almost impossible to overstate” the influence of efficient market reasoning on economic and financial market models (4:02);
Radical uncertainty: There is a great deal of information that cannot be realistically thought about probabilistically. Enter COVID-19 (8:20);
What’s an investor to do with this information? (10:15);
Financial modeling has conflated risk, uncertainty, and volatility. They aren’t the same thing (12:53);
Time horizons and the importance of imagination. Humans are natural story tellers. This is more important than pure maths (20:24);
Where does real estate fit? (25:25);
Background on the guest (30:28);
What is the market getting wrong right now? (34:37);
Short discussion of the U.S. election (41:04).

Season 2, Episode 24: Math and Algorithms Are Overrated When it Comes to Investing

Published August 7, 2020

With Eric Chung, CIO, Lighthaven Capital Management

Eric Chung, chief investment officer of Lighthaven Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss his view that math, financial models, and algorithms are insufficient when it comes to investing.

“The widespread use of math in the investment management industry, while it can be helpful … I think there’s been some pretty significant overreliance on these things,” says Chung.

Tag: economy