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Category: Podcasts

Season 3, Episode 1: The Biden Administration and Risks to Global Growth

Published January 21, 2021

With Barry Knapp, Ironsides Macroeconomics

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his view on “policy tremors” that could upend economic and risk asset growth in 2021.

(Barry’s dog Oliver makes a brief appearance as well).

Content
(Spotify users can skip directly to the segment by clicking on the timestamp)
  • The current reflation theme is part of a recovery from what was actually a two-year recession in global manufacturing, trade, and capital spending (4:19);
  • The Federal Reserve will initially be pleased with rising inflation, having slayed the deflation boogeyman. This will eventually morph into discomfort (first from regional bank presidents) and concerns that inflation is moving “too far, too fast” (11:43);
  • Once this happens, Fed officials will begin discussing “policy normalization” and real rates will start to move, triggering a risk-off event (13:19);
  • The Georgia elections the first week of the year were a kind of “sneak preview” of this event, but look to mid-year for the real McCoy (16:37);
  • Another important indicator: Watch house prices through the spring selling season (20:40);
  • Two details of President-elect Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal that are not fully appreciated by the market (21:41);
  • The Democrats will likely ask for more than Republicans are willing to give, triggering reconciliation that would be a rude awakening for the market (28:38);
  • If the $1400 stimulus checks go through it may lead to another “speculative blow off” (30:50);
  • There is no indication President-elect Biden is willing to roll back tariffs on China, though he could re-engage in TPP. But anybody expecting a broader unwinding of the trade war “is pretty off-base” (33:00);
  • Look for further USD weakness, particularly against the yen and the euro (37:57);
  • Favorite asset classes for 2021 (41:09)
MoreSeason 3, Episode 1: The Biden Administration and Risks to Global Growth
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Season 2, Episode 39: How To Find Compounders In Unusual Places

Published December 31, 2020

With Artem Fokin, Caro-Kann Capital

Artem Fokin of Caro-Kann Capital joins the podcast to discuss his strategy of finding compounders in unusual places, specifically those listed on the “wrong” exchanges.

Content Segments

  • “What do I mean with the wrong exchange?” (3:42);
  • Why would a U.S. company not just list in the U.S.? Isn’t there more upside? (7:19);
  • Why the Australian exchange is one of the guest’s favorites for finding these companies (13:41);
  • What are the other criteria he looks for? (22:05);
  • What about valuation metrics for choosing an entry point? (31:06);
  • Background on the guest (35:05);
  • More information about his fund, which also focuses on special situations (37:18);
  • The focus has remained consistent, due to core competence (39:35);
  • One hidden gem, a portfolio holding, that he discovered recently: a software company with solid growth rate early in its lifecycle that trades in Australia — and is already profitable (41:19);
  • More discussion of the company, its customer base and how that has changed post-COVID (48:52).
MoreSeason 2, Episode 39: How To Find Compounders In Unusual Places
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Season 2, Episode 38: Buckle Up, The Bull Market is Just Getting Started

Published December 22, 2020

With Ryan Worch, Worch Capital

Ryan Worch of Worch Capital joins the podcast to discuss his views that even after the massive post-COVID rally in stocks, the bull market is just getting started.

Content Sections

  • The most appropriate historical parallel from a price-pattern standpoint may be 1999 and the massive “tech melt-up” that ended in 2000 (3:21);
  • “We believe the market is in this secular bull market — for various reasons,” particularly monetary easing. This should “supercharge” a move higher, much as in 1999 (5:35);
  • The similarities and differences between now and the late 1990s (8:40);
  • The Fed is “completely transparent these days.” They will be forced to raise rates at some point, but the markets may not stop rallying for a while (12:21);
  • Current excesses are nothing compared to those of the late 1990s. People are still spooked by what happened (16:44);
  • Background on the guest (22:06);
  • How he started his fund in 2008 (26:39);
  • How Worch Capital was able to avoid the February-March correction this year (28:54);
  • Why he still likes growth, and which sectors (34:54).
MoreSeason 2, Episode 38: Buckle Up, The Bull Market is Just Getting Started
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