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Investor Confidence Is Fast Approaching ‘Invulnerable Extremes’ (Szn 5, Ep 19)

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Cover Art: Contrarian Investor Podcast Season 5 Episode 19

With Peter Atwater

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Peter Atwater joins the podcast to discuss the ideas from his latest book, “The Confidence Map: Charting a Path From Chaos to Clarity.” Crucially, he tells listeners why investor confidence is today fast approaching the ‘invulnerable extreme’ that indicates a top in markets…

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Nathaniel E. Baker 0:35
Peter Atwater, you are the author of a book called The confidence map, this book just came out. And the subtitle is charting a path from chaos, to clarity. And this book kind of seeks to do, or at least would appear to seek to do something that has kind of been the holy grail of everything, which is trying to figure out the future. As it says here in the press release, predicting imminent results and behaviors before they happen. So that sounds like it’s a tall order. And you’ll have to forgive me for being a tiny bit skeptical about it. Obviously, for investing purposes, and you do have a background in investing before you became an author, which we’ll talk about later. But maybe to start, just tell us, the these are the idea behind the book, and how one would go about predicting the future before it happens.

Peter Atwater 1:37
Okay, so I spend a lot of time looking at the impact of confidence on the choices we make, particularly in the investment space. And I believe that how we feel is mirrored by the stories we tell and the narratives that are in the market. And then the actions that are coincident with that, and there’s sort of this existing equilibrium. And what you know, is that is our stories change as our feelings change our actions, then change with that. And so to the extent that we know, the kinds of things we’re likely to do, if confidence rises, or if confidence falls, then we can begin to predict what the crowd is likely to do next. And so you can start to see, particularly in the space of investing, that as confidence falls, investor preferences change dramatically. The kinds of things we want, as an investor are truly a function of how we feel, you know, at one end, you have, you know, stuffing our mattresses with cash. And at the other end, you have us buying things that are extraordinarily abstract Spax, and crypto and these things at the other end. And so, my, the purpose of the book was to share this framework that I’ve established and used with investors for for more than a decade now, to help others to be able to anticipate what often get characterized as the shocking events. And if you if you know how people feel their behavior is far less shocking than you realize.

Nathaniel E. Baker 3:24
Okay, so how does one go about determining what investors moods are? Like, what kind of data what kind of inputs are you looking for there to kind of, and then how do you judge it on a scale of one to 10 is just kind of a ballpark? How does that work?

Peter Atwater 3:41
Yeah, so I’m a big believer that markets measure mood, that they are probably the best barometer of investor sentiment out there. Price is a is a mirror of how we feel it’s like a thermometer in terms of temperature. And so you can use prices to detect how not only the market feels overall using the major indices. But if I wanted to look at so how did the Richfield today? Well, I can look at Louis retirement, you know, LVMH. And suddenly, I have a very good perspective, a good lens on how those at the very top field, I can do the same looking at dollar stores or or Walmart and companies like that to see how do those at the low end field. So price is probably the the easiest way to gauge sentiment right out of the blocks. But then I then I can pair that with the stories. I can pair that with what’s what’s being shared and widely accepted on CNBC or Bloomberg or Fox Business. The financial media is in the business of mirroring back to its audience, exactly how the audience feels. And so from the kinds of people that are being brought on to the topics that are being discussed, those are giving me even more clues. And then the other is what are what Is the crowd buying what’s what’s being touted and talked about in podcasts like this and in other forums, that’s giving me insights into that that group dynamic because we’re, we’re, we leave obvious clues that we eagerly overlook. magazine covers are another one that the front page of the Financial Times or the Wall Street Journal, they’re, they’re telling us how we feel.

Nathaniel E. Baker 5:25
You know, I’m afraid you’re gonna put me out of work here because I use magazine covers and other things as a contrarian indicator. And the whole premise of contrarian investing is that the crowd is wrong. And especially that when things get popular, that’s when you want to sell them. And it sounds like, at least from the sound of it, your ideas, your thesis kind of nullifies that,

Peter Atwater 5:49
oh, no, no, it doesn’t nullify it at all it. I mean, I use magazine covers every, you know, every moment I can and some more than others as a contrarian indicator or as a leading indicator as a contrarian. Okay. Oh, okay. Okay. All right. Yeah. Because, you know, by the time something reaches the cover, this story has to be widely accepted. And even more I love the covers that are extrapolating the present into the future. You know, things go things that are unstoppable are relentless, so that the adjectives, you know, I think God is in the adjectives of all of these covers in terms of the strident of the, of the movement. And in my favorite contrarian indicators, there’s a sense of urgency and power and, and strident voice that that to be to think otherwise. would make you feel like you’re way outside of the crowd that it’s, you know, it should bring back the the anxiety of middle school, you know, just sort of not being in with the cool kids when, when you look at these covers. That said, I think some covers matter more than others. I’m not, I don’t use Barron’s, for example, because Barron’s can can be both provocative, and contrarian. And so you need to be careful there. On the other hand, if I see something, you know, if I see cryptocurrency on the cover of Scientific America, well, that’s telling me that everybody’s in on it. So, so to see things in finance making their way to other genres of journalism, or that, to me is a very powerful sentiment measure.

Nathaniel E. Baker 7:35
Absolutely. But I guess it meshes well then with a contrarian thesis then because you’re saying it sounds like you’re saying that if things get too crowded, you want to take the other side of it, right? Yes. Oh, cool. Okay. Yeah,

Peter Atwater 7:51
absolutely. Absolutely. And it both extremes. I mean, I love nothing more than market and turmoil, you know, specials and the covers that suggests that things are only going to get worse.

Nathaniel E. Baker 8:04
Okay. So what’s the the certainty or the confidence then is it a complete misnomer? And when people are confident that that’s that just, there’s only overconfidence? Or where do you draw the line there?

Peter Atwater 8:17
So I think we are equally under confident, as overconfident. And the way I look at it is that confidence comes from our feelings of certainty and our sense of control in what’s ahead. When I say I’m confident, I’m entirely forward looking, which why which is why confidence to me is such a wonderful thing to look at, because investors are inherently forward looking. The decisions we’re making today as an investor, or based on our imagination of what’s ahead, and, and anytime we’re thinking about the future, we have to remember that we were imagining it. So we can, we can imagine rainbows and unicorns and nothing but certainty ahead at one end, where we feel invulnerable. And then at the other end, we can see nothing but chaos and powerlessness in the other direction. If you looked at the sentiment in early March 2020, when COVID hit, I would argue that everyone was under confident in that moment, that what we were projecting in terms of lives lost and economic calamity, we’re gonna we’re far darker than the reality that was ahead.

Nathaniel E. Baker 9:39
Okay, that’s really interesting. So it sounds like there is a fine line that one has to tread, if it wants to kind of discern the mood. This all begs the question. What do you think of today’s markets and today’s world, I guess, and where are we in terms of confidence? Where are investors in terms of confidence right now, as we record this on On July 21,

Peter Atwater 10:01
yeah, so I think investors are rapidly approaching the invulnerable, extreme, particularly in things like AI, where there has been this mania that has also then brought along any company that is, you know, Ken can credibly argue that they have a grounding in, in artificial intelligence. But I also look at it in terms of stocks, like LVMH, which is telling me that the financial elite have never felt better. I think it’s particularly notable that, you know, here you have a luxury, relatively small luxury goods company, that serves a very small segment of the population is the most heavily weighted by market cap company in Europe, you know, worth more than Unilever and Mercedes and shell and companies that you think of as having, you know, broad customer bases in global reach. And four of the top 10 companies in Europe are luxury goods makers. And that’s saying a lot about the extreme sentiment to me, at the very top. But I’m the I’m the economist behind the case, shape recovery. And I think that we’ve left a lot of people behind, were outside of the market, those that are distant from the investment space, their sentiment is not especially good at all. And so you you see these contradictions, and, you know, in a country like France, where you have widespread rioting in the streets at the same time, the financial elite feel wonderful. And another

Nathaniel E. Baker 11:40
example, by the way, is Ferrari, which is stock has been going all the way up and talk about a an elite luxury goods. I mean, there’s only so many that are even made.

Peter Atwater 11:50
Yeah. And and those I think are useful sentiment measures that investors often overlook.

Nathaniel E. Baker 11:59
Yeah, no question. And then you have things like the bond market, and bonds are seemingly falling apart. I don’t know how closely you follow that. But do you think that could be people are have lost confidence in that? What other what else? Are you seeing? Signs? Yeah, so

Peter Atwater 12:15
I think the bond markets sentiment is useful if we can rewind the tape to early 2021. Because we had, you know, just a little over two years ago, trillions of dollars of negative yielding bonds. And if you step back and just say, what is that telling us about sentiment, it’s saying that investor sentiment in bonds is extreme. People are paying to buy bonds. So I think that was an indicator that was flashing, you know, incredible warning signs that was overlooked, and investors have paid a steep price for that, as yields have risen. And I think one of the, the notable aspects about early 2021 was, we had both stocks and bonds flashing red at the same time, which was not supposed to happen in the world of balanced investing. Historically, we’ve believed that bonds move up as stocks move down and the reverse. But what we’ve seen, certainly during 2022, was declining confidence in in both stocks and bonds simultaneously, and particularly balanced investors paying a very steep price for it. You know, I when I look at interest rates, I think interest rates are an interesting sentiment measure not only of bonds, but of our feelings towards the Fed more broadly. I mean, if you go back to the early 1980s, when interest rates were approaching 20%, nobody had any faith in monetary policymakers. And yet, you come to you’re not that long ago, there was a sense that monetary policy makers were invincible that they, they could move the world. They you know, Ben Bernanke was the most powerful man in the world Maestro

Nathaniel E. Baker 14:17
was the name of license passport biographer. Yeah,

Peter Atwater 14:21
yeah. So. So I, again, these are indicators of mood that are become very relevant because if interest rates continue to rise, what we’re likely to see is increasing disdain and criticism aimed at the competence of the Fed, that goes along with it that that begins to feed this negative loop. Where as interest rates rise, we we lose greater and greater hope in in those that were supposed to be guiding the process.

Nathaniel E. Baker 14:54
You know, the final piece of this, as you know, is timing. And you can be But one can be right on something for a long time and go broke. You know, markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. So is there is there a piece of that in your thesis about as far as the timing of it all? And you mentioned the magazine covers is like the obvious sign of a top? Is there anything else?

Peter Atwater 15:19
Yeah, I mean, good can go to worse scrape can go to extraordinary and, and I think that we get so fixated on the distance between the 10 yard line, and the goal line, that contrarians particularly start to take short positions at the top, early on, and what, what we fail to appreciate is, the movements at the extreme, are the most dramatic. And so I always suggest to folks, if you’re going to be a contrarian, that’s great.

Nathaniel E. Baker 15:57
Well listen to this podcast is hopefully your first suggestion. But right but yeah,

Peter Atwater 16:01
But you have to wait for exhaustion. And, and appreciate that a vertical line up or down is like an evening lamp light to mas, it attracts a crowd. And so what you’re looking for is this rocket like or precipice, light line to suggest that all that are coming in have arrived, all that have exited, you know, have left. And what we’re looking for elements of exhaustion, capitulation, absolute panic at the bottom and extraordinary euphoria. Having said that, you know, timing wise, the beauty of these extremes is you can afford to wait. If we go back to March of 2020. Knowing that the bottom was arriving, had you waited till April, May, even June, you would have given up a little bit of the game. But you would have you know, there’s a lot of reason to wait. And not to get too excited about the the contrarian trying to time the perfect contrarian moment. Markets give you plenty of time to to allow the capitulation to occur. And then to realize that that moment is now behind you. You don’t have to don’t don’t try to anticipate it. Just wait for it.

Nathaniel E. Baker 17:39
Yeah. And you’re probably not going to turn it perfectly anyway. No, it Yeah. Last year, I

Peter Atwater 17:43
always say to clients, you know, it’s around here somewhere.

Nathaniel E. Baker 17:46
Yeah, yeah. Last question before we go to break. And I think this is kind of an appropriate asset class. And you mentioned that Kryptos and this is something where like, the peak mania was probably Well, one day did it peak. Exactly. It’s 60. I think it was late 2022 Even before the whole sandbank, and fried wherever the guys firm was called FTX. Yeah. implosion, and then he figured, okay, that’s it. Crypto is over. And then they come roaring back this year. So what gives here is this just another example of a bottom forming? And because the Bloom is off the rose for Kryptos? Like you no longer see these crazy magazine covers? And, you know, there’s some quiet confidence in some circles, but it seems the mania phase is well past or has it?

Peter Atwater 18:34
So I think the mania phase has passed and appreciate that we’ve now had two manic phases. Yeah, we had the 2017 Mania and the more recent mania. And so the prospect of a third one to me is even more remote. But what’s been so interesting about crypto is that you can see parallel behaviors in the popularity of Elon Musk. Elon Musk to me is a wonderful human sentiment indicator i i Look at him as the Kevin Bacon of all of the the hot investment ideas of this cycle from EVs to solar to space to various currencies. Now he’s he’s been at the the nexus of all of them. And so we could watch is as the price of crypto declined, so did the the godlike standing of of Elon Musk and so, to watch at the end of last year, you could see the disdain and anger and the sort of the hopelessness being paralleled in in him that we saw with with coins. What’s been more interesting to me very recently as well. You’ve had this intense goal to front run the the ETF thing of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies that did, people are positioning themselves in anticipation of this coming attraction, which we always do. What’s striking to me is how rather tepid prices responded to that. So to your point is the bloom off the rose? I think it may be. And I’m now watching, given all of the front running that we’ve seen. If we don’t see it, or even if we do see it at this point, I’m afraid that a lot of of your powder has been put to use already. And I’m not it’s not entirely clear to me, what moves crypto in the next big leg short of something major with the dollar. That okay, that what we see isn’t so much a rally in crypto as much as a drop in the dollar being manifesting in the value of crypto.

Nathaniel E. Baker 21:15
Okay, that’s really interesting. That’s a lot for us to think about so far. I want to take a short break, and then come back and ask you some more about yourself, about your work, and some other stuff. But let’s first take a break. If you’re a premium subscriber, you do not get the break. So don’t touch the dial. We’ll be right back. In fact, we already are.

Welcome back, everybody here with Peter Atwater, author of The confidence map, charting a path from chaos to clarity. Peter, this is the segment of the podcast where we ask our guests to tell us a little bit more about themselves, how they arrived at this station in their career, how they got their start in investing their origin story, if you will, to put things into Marvel terms. As far as becoming an investor, and how it all wind them up where they are today. So without Yeah, tell us about that. Take it away and tell us about yourself.

Peter Atwater 22:13
So my my elevator story is that they’re right out of college, I went to work for JP Morgan. In the early 1980s. Great timing because Morgan was transitioning from bank to investment bank. And I landed in the what became the asset backed securities area, helping auto companies and credit card companies securitize their debt. Ran that group and then ultimately went to work for one of my clients. First USA, we got bought by bank, one was treasurer there, helped with the asset management business and then ran the private client business. left there after the after the.com bubble burst to work with folks at first USA who had worked with before to create a online credit card company Juniper that got bought by Barclays. When I turned 45. My son said, Dad, you’re halfway to 90, and I said who. And so I stopped working. I wasn’t quite sure what it was I wanted to do next. Next turned out to be working with some hedge funds, helping them navigate the 2008 financial crisis, having been a bank treasurer, knowing a lot about securitization, working with regulators, rating agencies, pretty, pretty good sense of how crises, the crisis was going to play out. What I didn’t realize was why the markets bottomed in 2009, given the hopelessness that I saw, and so as the markets took off, I got really confused. And that led me to spend a lot of time looking at investor sentiment and trying to discover what is it and why does it matter? And so I started researching confidence in discovered that it’s a word we all use, that we have no idea what it means. You know, typically we describe confidence by the behavior of others, you know, look at LeBron, look at Beyonce, look at Elon Musk, they’re confident, be that. And what I come up with is a model that I share in my book that is all about certainty and control. Because we need both of those to feel confident. And if I can understand the certainty and control that you feel, then I can start to understand the choices you’re going to make and the stories you tell. One of the things I think we overlook and sort of this contrarian view is the opposite of confidence is vulnerability. And that becomes a really useful lens to see how people are behaving. Because what to me defines a mania isn’t so much overconfidence, as it is invulnerability, people are afraid of nothing. And their investing behavior reflects that and its size and its risk appetite and its absence of scrutiny. And at the other extreme, when we are feeling intensely vulnerable, you see the the opposing behaviors where we’re, we’re afraid to take risk. And and if we take risk at all, it’s an things that have very low, low potential for loss.

Nathaniel E. Baker 25:41
What part of this is do you also, where do you view FOMO? Because Robert Shiller, a Yale economist, and his work about bubbles, writes that it’s a lot of times it’s not so much that people think, believe and believe anything is true, but they just see other people getting rich, and they have envy over that and pile into the same assets as a result, hoping for the for the, you know, the same result that’s happened to all these other people. Where do you where do you factor that in there? Yeah,

Peter Atwater 26:13
so I think jealousy is an important element of this. Because what we’re seeing is others, reaping enormous abundance. And what we’re feeling is scarcity. We don’t have it as much as they have. And as that gap widens, it really gnaws at us. And so we decide clearly too late in the process to play catch up. And so you see the novice and naive racing in to catch up moments before the turn. And, and I, I look at novice behavior is a really important sentiment indicator, when people who shouldn’t be aware shouldn’t be diving in are, you know, are going in with, you know, holding hands, you know, bags of money, that that’s an indicator that we’re we’re approaching the end of that cycle.

Nathaniel E. Baker 27:07
Yeah, that’s the old mother in law in Decatur, right. Or, yeah, my high school buddies, right. People who have absolutely nothing, don’t work in finance, have no knowledge of it suddenly come out of the woodworks.

Peter Atwater 27:18
Yeah, it was like, you know, when when grandma was asking about crypto and except Thanksgiving table in 2017, it’s like, okay, that’s a sign.

Nathaniel E. Baker 27:26
Yeah, it’s the famous shoeshine boy, which, by the way, I’ve seen attributed to many different people. I’m not even sure if that story is true. But it’s a great story. Yeah. But right. Okay, so what? Where does that leave one in terms of asset allocation? You know, going back to bonds versus stocks, I guess the obvious thing is you buy bonds, you sell stocks? Is there anything else there? Yeah. So yeah, particularly today?

Peter Atwater 27:54
You know, I think that our strategy for diversification, has been to look at historical correlations. And I don’t think those are necessarily relevant today. My my recommendation in terms of diversification, is really driven by sentiment diversification, that to be successful over the long run, you want to own some things that are hot, some things that are in taken for dead, you know, things where sentiment is clearly rising, and sentiment is clearly falling. Because what, what provides the benefit of diversification? Is those varying trendlines in sentiment, changes that both benefit you at times, and at other times harm you. I mean, we, we and so, particularly given what we’ve what we’ve witnessed with the extreme sentiment in stocks and bonds simultaneously, I think we need to be careful not to just stick with this, this pie chart from the past that never anticipated. A an environment where all pieces of the pie would be piping hot at the same time, because the danger that I see is that the pie cools all at once that rates rise, stock prices fall, that there’s a there’s a there’s a financial asset drop that touches all financial assets at once,

Nathaniel E. Baker 29:38
which is what we saw in late oh, eight early oh nine if memory serves, yes, things like they were seen as safety like the Swiss Franc and the gold got bludgeoned along with everything else. The only thing that didn’t was treasuries. So is there anything right now that you think is obviously at an inflection point where it’s poised to become Popular. And it’s at a kind of at a low in confidence where you think it’s a buy. Yeah, there’s literally a buying. But yeah,

Peter Atwater 30:07
yeah, there are things in the commodity space, particularly natural gas, okay. So if I go back to last summer, natural gas was skyrocketing, and they was skyrocketing because people were afraid of what was happening in Ukraine. There was fear about capacity and in Europe. And so it became a, a symbol of turmoil in Europe. And as all symbols do, it became over believed. And this is something we see repeatedly. And, and it was a symbol to me of scarcity. And if I look today, as is always the case with commodities, prices fallen, and now there is a sense of extraordinary abundance. And with that abundance comes a sense of complacency. And so, you know, I’m not professing that the low is in or that the low is imminent, but what I see is a, a relaxation of complacency around something that just moments ago, we were terrified about it running out in prices, reflecting that. And so I get, I like to look at things where you have a sense of, of extreme certainty, either of abundance or scarcity and, and liquid natural gas, or natural gas more broadly, sort of fits that definition today.

Nathaniel E. Baker 31:43
Yeah, or commodities. In general, when you talk when there’s talk about how, you know, the world is awash in oil. And our problem is too much oil, not too little. That’s when things have kind of gotten to the bottom. You know, it’s on the other side of there can’t ever be enough oil, and the prices are gonna keep going higher and higher. Yeah, and that’s right. And there’s reasons for that, because the investment cycle on all these other things, and

Peter Atwater 32:08
you see that mirrored in our view of the power full or powerlessness of OPEC. Yeah, you know, I, I’m a big believer that oligopolies are only as powerful as the price of the product, they’re believed to control. Yeah, and so the fact that we’re seeing dissension among, among OPEC members is, again, an indicator that prices low sentiment is, is weak. If we see a reversal, folks will go back to the view that OPEC is the most powerful organization in the world.

Nathaniel E. Baker 32:45
So all of this kind of assumes that, you know, things are cyclical, and that they come around. But every once in a while, things fall apart, to quote, needs here to feel Forgive me, right? Like sometimes, and it hasn’t really happened in the US, although maybe in the depression or whatever. But, you know, sometimes things do fall apart, and society falls apart. And history is full of examples. Again, not so much here in the US, but anywhere else. Except for like, maybe

Peter Atwater 33:19
Canada, where he has sweat so so you see social unrest, whether it’s the Arab Spring, you know, the French Revolution, you know, we can look at these moments in history, and they’re, they’re all driven by feelings of intense vulnerability, that things seem uncertain. And people feel ill prepared, ill equipped, incapable of dealing with that, in the case of the Arab Spring, driven by food, inflation and food scarcity. But we need to be cognisant. Today, I think, of the the real pessimism that exists in many corners of the United States. And, and I know that a lot of attention is given to the left versus right divide. But to me, the more disconcerting divide is, is up and down in terms of relative economics and, and again, relative confidence. Because when my confidence is low, what I care about is me here now, and so my decision making is going to be impulsive, it’s going to be emotional. And it doesn’t take much to spark mass social movement today. If you look at the tools that we have in terms of social media, small changes in mood can quickly spread both in intensity and and in volume. We saw that with the Black Lives Matter movement a couple of years ago, that you know, you have a single event which, which sadly had occurred before, suddenly triggering a mass social movement. Because confidence was extremely low to begin with. And I and I’d argue we’ve seen a similar parallel with what just happened with the, with Silicon Valley Bank and first republic in another way, where now we give people the online banking tools and trading tools to act on their changes in sentiment very quickly. And, and in those moments, price then becomes both cause and effect. And people looking at the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank price shares, and then that triggering an even greater stampede into into other things.

Nathaniel E. Baker 35:45
Yeah, well, that’s the situation has since reversed. And there you go. Maybe another example. I mean, regional banks were great buying opportunity in March and April. Turns out, if you look at the recent price action, some of these have rallied in a major way.

Peter Atwater 35:58
Yeah. And that’s not uncommon. You know, panic, I believe panic is God’s way of telling us that the worst is behind us. But we always see it is the worst is ahead of us. panics are intensely. They tend to be energy, exhausting, behaviorally exhausting. And anytime I see panic, I’m quick to tell people, this is going to end quickly and prepare for the other side. I don’t know at what price level I don’t know, you know, whether it’s this week or next week. But again, you don’t. You don’t have to time the end of a panic to the moment. And I think panic is a moment to prepare, not a moment to get in line trying to race for the exit. Very,

Nathaniel E. Baker 36:55
very contrarian viewpoint here to wrap things up. Peter, thank you so much for joining me contrarian investor podcast today. In closing, maybe tell our listeners how they can find out more about you. I will include links in the show notes as well as a link to the book. So they can buy that. Yeah, I don’t know if you’re active on social media or anywhere else.

Peter Atwater 37:14
Yeah, they can find me on Twitter. And I’m @Peter_Atwater. I’m also write a blog columns on LinkedIn. And they can find me permanently at peteratwater.com.

Nathaniel E. Baker 37:33
Okay, that’s all very good. Very easy to remember as well. peteratwater.com. Check it out. Again. I’ll put the links in there. Thank you so much for coming and speaking with us, Peter, fascinating conversation. I hope you all enjoyed it. I know I did. And with that, we will see you again next week. Speak then. Bye.

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