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Category: Podcasts

Assessing the Precarious State of Markets With Marc Chandler (Szn 4, Ep 18)

Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannock Burn Global FX, joins the podcast to discuss the precarious state of markets and what he is expecting from upcoming releases of key economic data. He also provides a pair of investment ideas for these times, with the understanding that nothing here is to be taken as investment advice.

Content Highlights

  • The coming week brings a number of crucial economic data around employment and inflation. What to expect (2:50);
  • “I don’t think we’re in a recession yet. But I think it’s going to be hard to avoid one.” Cracks are appearing and these warrant attention (3:51);
  • Weekly jobless claims (up Thursday) can be a leading indicator of recessions (5:30);
  • Non-farm payrolls are up on Friday. What to expect (11:34);
  • Core inflation is actually receding from highs, but the Fed can’t (and more importantly won’t) declare victory over inflation quite yet (14:42);
  • Recent days have seen a shift in market sentiment, to where a rate cut is starting to be priced in (17:43);
  • What is an investor to do here? The guest has two ideas, at opposite ends of the risk spectrum (25:23);

More on the Guest

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Transcript

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Fed Will Reverse Course on Rate Hikes, And Soon: Deer Point Macro (Szn 4, Ep 17)

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Deer Point Macro joins the podcast to discuss his view that the U.S. Federal Reserve will only hike interest rates once more before easing.

Content Highlights

  • The Fed is not some magical organization that can control all parts of monetary economics (2:50);
  • The Fed can create demand for credit, but banks have to provide supply. And banks are pushing back (5:03);
  • What to make of the Fed’s rate hikes this year? How has that affected bank portfolios? (9:37);
  • The eurodollar market plays a significant role in Fed policy and its implications. An explanation (13:24);
  • The Fed stands to raise once more, at its next meeting in July, before having to cut rates in September (16:21);
  • Inflation is stubbornly persistent. Doesn’t this force the Fed to raise rates? (19:57);
  • Background on the guest (30:14);
  • Markets don’t really react to ADP employment data, but for economic detective work it can be vitally important (31:48);
  • How this all translates to asset prices: good for bonds but commercial banks are maybe not as safe as some would think. But regional banks may be a better bet (35:11);
  • What about cryptocurrencies? (36:34);
  • Quick discourse on the so-called ‘Fisher effect’ that posits that inflation rises as Fed funds increase — over the long term (39:14).
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