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The Contrarian Investor Podcast Posts

Trend-Following Strategies for the New World Order (Szn 6, Epsd 7)Podcast episode cover art

Trend-Following Strategies for the New World Order (Szn 6, Epsd 7)

Published April 24, 2024

With Dr. Doug Greenig, Florin Court Capital

This episode was recorded April 15, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers the following day — without ads or interruptions. More information on premium subscriptions is available on our Substack page.

Dr. Doug Greenig of Florin Court Capital joins the podcast to discuss his worldview — one where the US is no longer the sole superpower — the situation in the Middle East, US fiscal concerns, artificial intelligence, and trends in commodities.

And of course how this all impacts his trading strategy.

Content Highlights

  • The world has undergone many changes with the US emerging as its lone superpower. That era is over (2:09);
  • China is a legitimate competitor to the US. It’s just having a bad moment due to the property market. But China is not going anywhere as an economic or military power (6:07);
  • The guest’s trend-following model trades 500 assets and seeks to capture medium-term changes. What he looks for to enter and exit trades (16:52);
  • One trend is lower electricity prices in Europe (19:19);
  • Populism and the latter stage of democratic government make for a potentially bearish outlook for US stocks (27:15);
  • Background on the guest (41:04);
  • Iran is still a force in the Middle East and beyond. Discussion of the weekend drone attack on Israel, which may have been an attempt at making a point (48:40);
  • As Russia’s economy illustrates, sanctions are hard to enforce. There may be inherent bias in many pro-Western analysis… (53:03);
  • US fiscal problems are real. The guest says it has “something like five years” before this takes a serious toll. Artificial intelligence may postpone this however (55:45);
  • Hypersonic missiles: One area where Russia and China have an edge over the US (57:45).

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The Trend is Your Friend. Right Now It’s Positive (Szn 6, Epsd 6)Podcast episode cover art feat Enrique Abeyta

The Trend is Your Friend. Right Now It’s Positive (Szn 6, Epsd 6)

Published April 5, 2024

With Enrique Abeyta, HX Research

Enrique Abeyta of HX Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his (constructive) views on the stock market, why commercial real estate concerns are overdone, and to provide one stock pick — and it’s not Nvidia, though he does discuss that at some length.

Some mature language is used at a few points. Sensitive listeners should be advised. 

The guest’s microphone setup is significantly better than the host’s so don’t get discouraged by the host sounding like he’s hiding in a cave at the open.

Content Highlights

  • Trends are underrated. Many investors don’t respect them or understand what they mean. The current trend is clearly long-term bullish for stocks (2:21);
  • However over the short term there could (probably will) be a pull back — as appears to be happening the week after recording (5:24);
  • On the whole, however, the outlook is very constructive. So constructive that the guest has only seen this clarity 10 times or less in his 30-year career (12:30);
  • When it comes to the Federal Reserve, there is a strong possibility interest rate policy stays roughly the same… (15:36);
  • Contrarian take: there’s no need to worry about commercial real estate: (19:00);
  • Regional banks presented an opportunity a year ago. New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) is not an opportunity now (23:54);
  • Views on Nvidia (NVDA): not super constructive (28:20);
  • One long term idea: Independent power producer Talen Energy (TLNE), owner of a nuclear power plant. The company recently emerged from bankruptcy (34:51).

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Stock Income Will Be Key for the Next Stage of Financial Market History (Szn 6, Epsd 5)Episode coverart feat Daniel Peris

Stock Income Will Be Key for the Next Stage of Financial Market History (Szn 6, Epsd 5)

Published March 27, 2024

With Daniel Peris

Financial market historian Daniel Peris joins the podcast to discuss his latest book, The Ownership Dividend, and why the next stage of the investing cycle will be marked by renewed focus on dividends and cash flows.

Note: The host’s mic was a little ‘stuffy’ for this episode but the guest comes in loud and clear!

Content Highlights

  • Cashflows have become ignored in the marketplace with investors accustomed to speculation over income. That is due to change (2:55);
  • No, this isn’t about value versus growth. Dividends and more notably buybacks are everywhere (5:22);
  • Warren Buffett has long said that companies should reinvest in the business rather than pay out dividends. But Buffett is no longer a minority shareholder… (18:30)
  • Background on the guest and unexpected detour into Russia/Ukraine (27:37);
  • Views on different sectors of the stock market from a dividend perspective (36:33);
  • What does the current era of dividend payouts say about the investing cycle? (42:40).

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